The only question bigger than who's actually going to win this division is how much will I be able to suppress my homer tendency/bias towards the Bucs and be able to realistically assess their chances for this season. Why don't we find out?
NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints (12-4)
2. Tampa Bay Bucs (9-7)
3. Carolina Panthers (8-8)
4. Atlanta Falcons (3-13)
New Orleans Saints: Let's face it — they absolutely stunk up the joint during the first half of the season last year before making a too-late postseason push.
You can blame the "this team is sneaking up on no one anymore" aspect (which I expect to strike the Cleveland Browns this year), but I'm going to go ahead and put most of the blame on their brutal defense, which finished 30th in the league in pass yards allowed per game. If "getting beat for long touchdowns" were an official stat, I think CB Jason David (pictured, left, in a familiar sight for Saints fans) would've easily led the league.
Fortunately for the Saints (and unfortunately for me as a Bucs fan), the Saints addressed their various defensive needs by bringing in former Jets LB Jonathan Vilma, and brought in a couple of free agent defensive backs from winning teams (Bobby McCray from Jacksonville and Randall Gay from the Patriots). Still, the team remains susceptible to the long pass as long as David's on the field. They also added 7th overall pick Sedrick Ellis to its defensive line.
Despite an injury to RB Deuce McAllister, the Saints were fourth in yards per game last year. As if getting McAllister back (allowing verging-on-bust RB Reggie Bush to go back to being more flexible in the offense) wasn't good enough, the Saints added talented/pain in the ass TE Jeremy Shockey (who seems to have a better attitude) to their already-talented receiving corps.
Should be a nice bounce back year for the Saints as long as QB Drew Brees stays healthy, and if the defense can come together, I think they can make a run for the conference title.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jon Gruden's tenure with the Bucs has brought the town a Super Bowl (insert crack about how he did it with Tony Dungy's players), but has actually been wildly uneven. The team has failed to make the playoffs in two consecutive seasons during his time here. (If you're a glass half full kinda person, you can say that the team hasn't MISSED the playoffs in two consecutive years during hit tenure.)
According to my sources, the Bucs missed the playoffs last year, so the safe bet would be for them to miss playoffs this season according to past trends. If that isn't enough, you can also point to the fact that the Bucs failed to add the explosive playmaking option on offense they desperately needed (though question remains if such a person was even out there).
Instead, the team decided to make solid, but unsexy free agent signings (C Jeff Faine should shore up a solid offensive line, RB Warrick Dunn hopping in a time machine, potential problem child WR Antonio Bryant) which make this team one of the deepest, yet one of the least interesting in the league (this from someone who lives here and hears about them on a daily basis and still finds them kinda boring).
I mean, I suppose it's interesting that coach Jon Gruden seems intent on stacking the roster with 14 QBs (I'm estimating), but I don't really see how that helps the team. I also don't see how the fact Garcia (pictured, right with Gruden) pretty much despises his head coach will help. At least when Garcia gets hurt this year, there are actually two decent backups (Brian Griese, Luke McCown) that can step in and do the job temporarily.
So to summarize, the team still has good, but not great players at pretty much every position, which makes them good enough to get to the playoffs (thanks to a favorable schedule), but not good enough to win a game once we're there. That's why I really wasn't crazy about bringing Favre in - he probably could've taken us from a team that gets to the playoffs and loses right away, to a team that gets to the playoffs, wins just one game. Maybe.
Carolina Panthers: How this team managed to finish last season with a 7-9 with a mediocre running game and QB Matt Moore along with 57-year-old QB Vinny Testaverde playing big parts is kind of a miracle.
That's also pretty much the only reason I have the Panthers finishing at .500. Sure, starting QB Jake Delhomme (pictured, left) is back from his elbow injury, but no one has any idea whether he'll be healthy enough to make it through an entire season.
It's also probably not a good sign that the team's best player (Steve Smith) punched a teammate in the face (Ken Lucas), gave him a black eye, and got himself suspended for the start of the season. At least the Panthers got some weapons in WR D.J. Hackett and Mushin Mohammad to help pick up the slack.
Their defense was in the middle of the pack last year and will probably stay there this year. The offensive line, on the other hand, is almost completely new, which usually isn't a good thing. The Panthers are probably hoping running backs DeAngelo Williams and rookie Jonathan Stewart play well this year and make the line look good (or vice versa).
With the hopes of their season riding on Delhomme's shaky elbow, I don't think I should have them anywhere near 8-8, but, as they proved last year, this team can play beyond its skill level and will probably do so again this year.
Atlanta Falcons: Not that I'm making excuses for the cowardly way he snuck out in the middle of the night, but can you really blame former coach Bobby Petrino for running back to college football. This team is a complete mess! Coach Mike Smith (boring name — this guy needs a middle initial or something) takes over this disaster show (pictured, right, is the first thing that came up when I Google imaged "disaster").
This season figures to be the first in a multi-year process to clean that mess up. The team drafted what it hopes is a franchise QB in Matt Ryan (bye bye Michael Vick era in Atlanta) and brought in big money free agent RB Michael Turner, fresh out of LaDainian Tomlinson's shadow.
Ryan probably won't start the season as the Falcons QB, so we'll be treated to a few games of the Chris Redman/Joey Harrington combo getting smacked around before the team turns over the keys to Ryan.
I actually think the future looks kinda bright for the Falcons. On top of Ryan and Turner, the team hopes it discovered a star in WR Roddy White and with a little luck that could become a formidable trio for years to come.
Unfortunately, the Falcons haven't exactly been big winners in the luck department (trading QB Matt Schaub to the Texans a few months before Michael Vick was indicted for dogfighting — oops!) and they probably won't be winners very often this season.
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