NFL 2011 Week 4 Picks

Remember that completely disgusting and tasteless book O.J. Simpson wrote called “If I Did It”, where he “hypothetically” described the murders of ex-wife Nicole Brown Simpson and Ronald Goldman?

Well, not to go even a little “O.J.” on you, but since I was out of town and away from the Internet last week and didn’t do my Week 3 NFL picks, allow me to present a brief version of “If I Picked Them.”

Obviously, I could give myself a 16-0 record for week 3 (and you’d have no way to prove me wrong), but the reality is I would’ve gone 10-6. My six losses would’ve come from Bills over Pats, Giants over Eagles, Ravens over Rams (I thought the Rams would wake up at home…still waiting for them to wake up), Raiders over Jets, Seahawks over Cardinals and Browns over Dolphins. (What? I actually thought Miami could win a game once they got out of Miami.)

That brings my season record to (a party hypothetical) 30-18. Let’s jump right into this week’s picks.

DETROIT @ DALLAS

I think Dallas’ offense will be a lot better than they were during the Monday Night football kicking contest against the Redskins, but I still think they’re too banged up to beat the surging Lions. (You’re damn right I just said “surging Lions”!)

CAROLINA @ CHICAGO

Most of the talk around the Bears so far has focused on their inability to defend QB Jay Cutler. It seems like precisely the right time for their defense and special teams to carry them to a win.

BUFFALO @ CINCINNATI

I like the Bills (like everyone else) but his has letdown game written all over it. The Bills are coming off their biggest win in almost a decade and they have to go on the road to face a team that laid an egg last week. No thanks.

TENNESSEE @ CLEVELAND

If Chris Johnson (pictured, left) had been around for preseason, he probably would’ve played three games. Let’s call Weeks 1-3 his preseason…it’s time to start playing for real.

MINNESOTA @ KANSAS CITY

The Chiefs actually showed signs of life last week for the first time all year, while the Vikings keep finding new and not-so-exciting ways to blow huge leads.

WASHINGTON @ ST. LOUIS

I’m riding sad, decrepit Rams bandwagon until the thing tumbles off a cliff.

NEW ORLEANS @ JACKSONVILLE

The Saints tend to struggle a bit against crappy teams on the road, but they should be able to handle the Jags.

PITTSBURGH @ HOUSTON

Ugh…I hate trying to pick this game. Houston lost last week against the first good team they played all year, but they acquitted themselves nicely against the Saints. Or did they? (Blowing a lead several times isn’t really encouraging.) Meanwhile, the Steelers struggled more than they really should have against the Colts. I’m calling that their wake-up call and saying they handle the Texans.

SAN FRANCISCO @ PHILADELPHIA

I’m more sure that the Eagles will win than I am whether or not Michael Vick will actually finish this game. (Philly doesn’t need him to beat the Niners at home.)

N.Y. GIANTS @ ARIZONA

The Giants looked great last week, but Arizona is a sneakily hard place to play. I’m going with New York until the Cards can prove to me that they’re not a complete mess.

ATLANTA @ SEATTLE

Seattle is another tough place to play, but I just can’t pick Tarvaris Jackson to win two games in a row. Sorry.

MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO

If Tony Sparano hasn’t updated his resume, he really should.

NEW ENGLAND @ OAKLAND

I’d be more inclined to pick the Patriots if Oakland hadn’t had that splashy win against the Jets last week (and if the Patriots weren’t coming in pissed from having lost to the Bills). The Pats will bounce back and win.

DENVER @ GREEN BAY

This feels like the week that Green Bay just completely kicks someone’s ass. (Finally.)

N.Y. JETS @ BALTIMORE

Each team has had its ups and downs, and we’re only in week 4! I’m taking the Ravens because I’m not encouraged by the Jets’ ability to stop the run after Darren McFadden ran wild all over them.

INDIANAPOLIS @ TAMPA BAY

Are you ready for some garbage?! (On the plus side, I finally get to watch a Bucs home game on TV.)

NFL 2011 Week 2 Picks

Boy, I sure (don’t) know how to pick them.

After a thoroughly mediocre week 1 of NFL picks, (8-8), I almost didn’t bother throwing these up. But that’s enough intro’ing if I want to get these in on time.

KANSAS CITY @ DETROIT

Kansas City has one of the best homefield advantages in the league and they got crushed at home last week by the Bills. Detroit didn’t even play that well against Tampa last week and destroyed them. What I’m saying is that I’m taking the Lions.

OAKLAND @ BUFFALO

I love that one of these two teams will be 2-0 after this week. It’s a quarterback league, so I’m taking the increasingly impressive Ryan Fitzpatrick (pictured, left).

TAMPA BAY @ MINNESOTA

The NFC is so deep that I think whoever loses this game and goes to 0-2 is in pretty big trouble. I REALLY don’t want that team to be the Bucs.

CHICAGO @ NEW ORLEANS

Chicago looked very impressive in their win against the Falcons last week, while the Saints looked pretty good in their loss against the Packers. I’m banking on the Saints defense to play (a little) better at home.

BALTIMORE @ TENNESSEE

The Ravens looked terrific against Pittsburgh last week, but I got the sense that game meant a little more to them than it did to the Steelers. Then again, even a Baltimore team that suffers a bit of a letdown should be good enough to beat the Titans.

CLEVELAND @ INDIANAPOLIS

I need evidence from the Colts that they’re not a complete disaster without Peyton Manning before I pick them to beat ANYONE.

JACKSONVILLE @ N.Y. JETS

The Jets were very fortunate to beat Dallas last week, while the Jags actually looked pretty impressive against Tennessee. The Jags will keep it close, but I expect New York to pull it out in the end.

SEATTLE @ PITTSBURGH

The Steelers looked horrific against Baltimore last week. After just one week, people are already on the “Are the Steelers too old” bandwagon. Relax, people. A visit from Seattle is just what the doctor ordered.

ARIZONA @ WASHINGTON

Besides the whole “West Coast team flying East to play a 1 p.m. game” factor (how would you like to play an NFL game when your body thinks it’s 10 a.m.?), I’m riding the Sexy Rexy train until it derails and he throws three picks.

GREEN BAY @ CAROLINA

Let’s just say I do NOT expect Cam Newton to throw for 400 yards again.

DALLAS @ SAN FRANCISCO

A much more interesting game in the mid-90’s. I actually think San Francisco will give them a little bit of trouble, but Dallas just has too much talent. (Even if Dez Bryant can’t find a way to stay in the lineup.)

SAN DIEGO @ NEW ENGLAND

It’s hard to pick against the Patriots, but their pass defense left much to be desired on Monday night. And that was against Chad Henne. What’s going to happen when Philip Rivers comes to town?

HOUSTON @ MIAMI

I think Miami will make things uncomfortable for Houston and pull out a win. Even though they were completely outclass by the Patriots last week, they were actually only a play or two away from being in that game.

CINCINNATI @ DENVER

By now, Kyle Orton must be begging to go on the road to get away from the “We Want Tebow” chants. Then again, I just saw that Andy Dalton is probably to start for the Bengals…so I’m going with Denver.

PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA

Things are going to get uncomfortable in the Dirty South when the Falcons go to 0-2 after they pretty much went all-in on this season.

ST. LOUIS @ N.Y. GIANTS

I think the Giants pull out this game and sucker people into thinking they’re a contender. The Rams can drop this one and still make up some ground with their terrible NFC West schedule.

NFL 2011 Week 1 Picks

Remember me?

I’m the guy who used to bang out about five columns/reviews/rants per week. Now I’m the guy who hasn’t written anything since July 1. (Will I write my “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II” review before it comes out on DVD? It’s going to be a photo finish.)

Anyway, I wasn’t going to let the 2011 NFL season kick off without giving you the chance to laugh at my sure-to-be-wildly-inaccurate picks. My picks to win are in bold.

NEW ORLEANS @ GREEN BAY

I’ve gotta take the Super Bowl champs opening their season at home and with all the guys who missed a significant amount of time due to injury last year jacked up and ready to go.

More importantly, the game marks a symbolic/monumental shift in my fantasy football life. For the past three years, Drew Brees has been my guy in my QB-centric primary fantasy football league. This year, I drafted Aaron Rodgers with the first overall pick. Drew took me to the playoffs three years ago, but we could never capture a title. I felt I had to shake things up. I’m holding a private, emotional torch-passing ceremony in my living room prior to tonight’s game if you’re interested in attending. Bring chips.

ATLANTA @ CHICAGO

The Falcons pretty much went all in for the short term, so they’d better beat up a Bears team that everyone thinks is lucky and that lost its big special team advantage with the new kickoff rules.

CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND

Psst. Don’t tell anyone, but I like Cleveland and I’ve got them grabbing the second wild card spot in the AFC.

BUFFALO @ KANSAS CITY

Chiefs QB Matt Cassel may or may not play, but I like their overpowering running game to lift them over the Bills.

PHILADELPHIA @ ST. LOUIS

The Eagles pretty much HAVE to face some sort of early-season adversity after making all that noise in the off-season, don’t they?

DETROIT @ TAMPA BAY

I like what the Lions have done in the offseason, but there are just a few too many teams on that bandwagon for my liking. (And a few too many people assuming the Bucs are just going to collapse this year.)

TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE

How is that the Bucs can’t sell out their home opener against an up-and-coming team, but THIS turd of a game somehow won’t be blacked out? Not looking forward to being subjected to this crap-fest.

PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE

I know these teams REALLY don’t like each other, but is it really a “rivalry” when one team (the Steelers) consistently beat the other in the playoffs?

INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON

I was honestly tempted to pick Indy, but then I remembered that the Texans usually do pretty well early in the year BEFORE collapsing and missing the playoffs/landing in the 7-to-9-win range.

N.Y. GIANTS @ WASHINGTON

You’re damn right I’m taking Sexy Rexy Grossman at home against the Giants, who will probably lose another defensive starter by the time I finish typing this sentence.

SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO

Tarvaris Jackson vs. Alex Smith is just like tonight’s matchup pitting Drew Brees against Aaron Rodgers…only the exact opposite. Ugh.

MINNESOTA @ SAN DIEGO

I think Minnesota will be frisky, but the Chargers just have too much talent and too much to prove after blowing their winnable division last year.

CAROLINA @ ARIZONA

I think Cam Newton and the Panthers will be shockingly decent (like “Rise of the Planet of the Apes”)…just not quite yet. Can’t take the Panthers on the road against a decent team that finally has a competent quarterback at the controls.

DALLAS @ N.Y. JETS

Come on, Jets…you can’t blow the Sept. 11 home game, which will feature a memorial tribute. Wait, maybe that’s EXACTLY why they’ll blow it!

NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI

The Patriots have had trouble traveling to Miami in the past, but that’s usually because the scorching hot weather kills them. Shouldn’t be an issue for a Monday Night game.

OAKLAND @ DENVER

The Broncos’ defense HAS to be better than they were last year. I expect a competitive, exciting game with a bunch of miscues. Should be fun.

John's 2011 Oscar Picks

Even though I just finished slaving away over my top 10 of 2010 list, I figured I'd try to sneak in some Oscar picks too.

Truth be told, it was kind of fun because 2010 ended up being a pretty solid year for movies. (Whereas last year, it kind of felt like we had to strain to find 10 Best Picture nominees.)

Anyway, I hope you don't mind if I just jump right in. Below you'll find my official pick for who I believe WILL win tonight, as well as who would actually get my vote.

(Warning: My picks will become completely arbitrary as we get to the more obscure categories.)

Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
127 Hours
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone


Will win: The King's Speech
Should win: Toy Story 3


What John Thinks: "The King's Speech" had Oscar written all over it even before it opened at your local movie theatre. "Toy Story 3" will never win because voters will see its inevitable Best Animated Film Oscar as enough of a reward. I wonder if there will soon be a year when a highly-acclaimed animated movie bypasses the Best Animated Film category and pushes all of its chips onto the Best Picture race.



Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening (The Kids are All Right)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

Will and should win: Natalie Portman.

What John Thinks: I've said it before, but I'll say it again. I think she gave the best performance out of any actor last year.



Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
James Franco (127 Hours)

Will win: Colin Firth
Should win: Jesse Eisenberg

What John Thinks: Firth will be an extremely worthy winner for his triumphant and crowd-pleasing turn in "The King's Speech", but I'd give the trophy to Eisenberg for his fearlessly abrasive performance and the way he made Aaron Sorkin's challenging dialogue sound like it was written especially for him.


Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
John Hawkes (Winter's Bone)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids are All Right)
Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)

Will win: Christian Bale
Should win: Geoffrey Rush

What John Thinks: I'm going to be thrilled for Bale because he's long overdue and he's incredible in "The Fighter", but Rush (a past Oscar winner) was my favorite thing in "The King's Speech" and worthy of the prize.



Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)

Will win: Melissa Leo
Should win: Amy Adams

What John Thinks: Leo's been mostly cleaning up at the major award ceremonies, so she's likely to do the same at the Oscars. (Even if there's a chance that she might be a little crazy.) I'd give the award to Adams, who radiated strength and toughness (words not usually associated with Amy Adams), as well as love in "The Fighter." Steinfeld is also a strong contender, but that was CLEARLY a lead performance, so I wouldn't give her my vote since she doesn't belong in this category.



Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Will and should win: Toy Story 3

What John Thinks: Duh! It's the only one of these that's also up for Best Picture, so which do YOU think the Academy likes the most.



Best Documentary Short Subject
Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
The Warriors of Qiugang

Will win: Killing in the Name
Should win: The Warriors of Qiugang

What John Thinks: Obviously, I haven't seen either, but "Killing in the Name" sounds appropriately grave. Meanwhile, I'd like to see "The Warrios of Quigang" win just so I could watch whichever poor soul is presenting struggle to pronounce "Quigang."



Best Short Film (Animated)
Day & Night
The Gruffalo
Let's Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)

Will win: Day & Night
Should win: The Gruffalo

What John Thinks: Pixar's "Day & Night" will win, but I actually thought it was one of their weakest offerings. I'm going with "The Gruffalo", which is also my nickname for Mark Ruffalo.



Best Short Film (Live Action)
The Confession
The Crush
God of Love
Na Wewe
Wish 143

Win and should win: God of Love

What John Thinks: "God of Love" has this on lockdown. Someone please let me know if I'm wright, since I'll probably be in the bathroom during this part.



Achievement in Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

Will and should win: Inception

What John Thinks: Since "Inception" will likely be shut out of most of the major awards, I expect it to mostly clean up in the technical categories. I'm not sure how much of "Alice in Wonderland" was art direction, and how much was green screen. "The King Speech" could pull a slight upset.



Achievement in Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Will win: True Grit
Should win: Black Swan

What John Thinks: "True Grit" was a big hit and has the second most Oscar nominations out of any movie this year. Yet outside of this category and Steinfeld for Supporting Actress, it has little chance of winning anything. I say the Academy throws them a bone. I'd give the prize to "Black Swan" and its stunning, urgent camera work.



Achievement in Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

Will win and should win: The King's Speech

What John Thinks: Again, I'm just not sure how much of the stuff in "Alice" was actually there. I'm playing it safe and going with "The King's Speech", which is what the Academy is likely to do as well.



Achievement in Directing
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
David O. Russell (The Fighter)
Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
David Fincher (The Social Network)
Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit)

Will win and should win: David Fincher

What John Thinks: The actual race appears to be between Fincher and Tom Hooper. In my world Fincher would be battling it out with Aronofsky. Either way, I'd give Fincher the edge for crafting an entertaining movie out of a bunch of guys sitting around dorm rooms, huddled around computers or sitting at a deposition.



Best Documentary Feature
Exit through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land

Will win: Inside Job
Should win: Gasland

What John Thinks: The Academy will want to look current by honoring a film about our country's economic meltdown. I'm going with Gasland because...it's the only one I've seen (a little bit of).



Achievement in Makeup
Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman

Will win and should win: The Wolfman

What John Thinks: Makeup artist Rick Baker is a legend, and I suspect his makeup work was probably the best part of a crappy movie. He'll take the Oscar over weak competition.



Achievement in Film Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network

Will win: The Social Network
Should win: Black Swan

What John Thinks: My real "Should win" is "Inception" (how the heck is it not up for Editing), but I think "The Social Network" will take the prize for keeping the pace moving and interesting.



Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Biutiful (Mexico)
Dogtooth (Greece)
In a Better World (Denmark)
Incendies (Canada)
Hors la Loi (Algeria)

Will and should win: In a Better World

What John Thinks: It won this category at the Golden Globes, so, um, there's that!


Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network

Will win: The Social Network
Should win: Inception

What John Thinks: "The King's Speech" is a possible spoiler, but I don't think the Academy will pass up the chance to seem hip and give the prize to a deserving Trent Reznor. (But not TOO hip, since Daft Punk weren't nominated for "Tron: Legacy.") Meanwhile, I'd give the Oscar to "Inception" composer Hans Zimmer. Thanks to dozens of YouTube videos, we now know his "Inception" score instantly makes ANYTHING seem more exciting.



Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)
"Coming Home" from Country Strong
"I See the Light" from Tangled
"If I Rise" from 127 Hours
"We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3

Will win: "If I Rise"
Should win: "I See the Light"

What John Thinks: I see this as the only realistic chance for the Academy to honor "127 Hours." I'd give it to "I See the Light" from "Tangled", because I actually have a clear recollection of the song. (On the other hand, I saw "Toy Story 3", and I LOVED "Toy Story 3", but I have no idea what the hell "We Belong Together" is supposed to be.)



Achievement in Sound Editing
Inception
Toy Story 3
TRON: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable



Achievement in Sound Mixing
Inception
The King's Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit

Will and should win: Inception

What John Thinks: I'm taking "Inception" to win both "Sound" categories even if I STILL have no idea what the difference between them is.



Achievement in Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2

Will win: Inception
Should win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I

What John Thinks: "Inception" will win because no movie was smarter about the way it utilized its visual effects to serve the story, but I'd reward "Harry Potter" for its consistently excellent (and now-underappreciated) effects. (Including several characters who were completely computer generated.)



Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Will and should win: The Social Network

What John Thinks: Aaron Sorkin's verbose and rapid-fire screenplay is a lock.



Original Screenplay
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids are All Right
The King's Speech

Will win and should win: The King's Speech

What John Thinks: I gave "Inception" a strong look here, but it IS a little heavy and clunky on the exposition. That's why I'm going with "The King's Speech", which turned a potentially stuffy and specific story and transformed it into a film with universal appeal. (I'll let other people fight over how true to life it was.)

John's Super Bowl Pick

The big game is finally here.

And the matchup between the Steelers and Packers promises to actually live up to the Super Bowl hype. On their side is recent history (the last few Super Bowls have been pretty fantastic), crappy weather in Dallas that has mostly tempered Super Bowl week stories — the big scandal…Ben Roethlisberger at a piano bar…dun, dun DUNNNN!!! — and has actually transformed the weather INTO the story…and made us look forward to the game itself.

Also, there’s the fact that these are two really great teams.

Let’s get to it. I’ve gone 6-4 in the playoffs so far, but, like both these teams, I want to finish strong.

PITTSBURGH VS. GREEN BAY
It’s hard to go against the Steelers because they always seem to find a way to win.

However, I’m picking the Packers in a relatively low-scoring game for two reasons. 1.) Super Bowls tend to get off to pretty slow starts because of all the pre-game spectacle and the sheer enormity of the moment. 2.) Both of these defenses are outstanding.

There’s been talk about how the Packers are going to spread out their receivers and attack the Steelers secondary, their alleged weakness. That may be true, but I suspect the Steelers have also heard this talk and that they won’t exactly be shocked when the Packers come out with three or four wide receivers. I think the Steelers defense will play well, and I’d be pretty surprised if we see a replay of the 37-36 contest between these two teams from last season.

On the flip side, I think the Packers defense will be even better against Big Ben and the Steelers offense. I’m not even THAT concerned about the absence of Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey. The main reason his backup, Doug Legursky, was kind of bad against the Jets (two botched QB-center exchanges) was because he was thrust into the game. Plus, it was freezing. Legursky will be better with two weeks of preparation. I think the Packers excellent secondary will shut down the Pittsburgh wide receivers (other than Mike Wallace, they’re kind of average).

In fact, I like one of those guys for my Super Bowl MVP. I’ll stop dancing around it and give you my prediction.

Green Bay 23, Pittsburgh 13

Super Bowl MVP: Charles Woodson, CB, Packers

NFL 2011 Conference Championship Picks

Yikes!

My last week (1-3 week, 4-4 playoffs) of picks was almost as big a catastrophe as the Ravens’ second half against the Steelers. (I said ALMOST because nothing is worse than the Ravens’ second half against the Steelers!)

I’m not even that bummed out that I was spectacularly wrong in predicting a Patriots blowout win against the Jets. First off, I was actually rooting for the Jets. Secondly, even Jets fans — if they’re being honest with themselves (ha!) — didn’t really think they’d win last week. So it’s been amusing watching them pretend that they knew they’d beat the Pats all along. (Silly Jets fans!)

As far as the Packers/Falcons…there’s no excuse for that one. Green Bay just smoked Atlanta.

Anyway, we’ve got two great games coming up this weekend, so let’s jump in.

GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO
The focus on this matchup has understandably been on how Aaron Rodgers — who actually burst into flames at one point during last week’s game— is going to fare against the Chicago Bears vaunted defense. (“Vaunted” is one of those words we never use in conversations outside of sports, isn’t it?)

I actually think the Bears defense will play as well as they did during Rodgers in the regular season, which is to say they kept him from going off. That means the key matchup will be the Packers underrated defense (and I only say “underrated” because Rodgers gets so much attention) against Jay Cutler and the Bears offense. I think they have the potential to force multiple turnovers.

On the other hand, I expect the Packers to cut WAY down on the mistakes (especially the penalties) that plagued them during their regular season loss in Chicago and advance to the Super Bowl.

N.Y. JETS @ PITTSBURGH
Ok, so I (along with pretty much every other NFL analyst, including people who are actually credible) had the Jets losing last week. But bear with me, and I’ll tell you why they’ll lose this week.

We all know about their gutty regular season win in Pittsburgh. You also probably know that Steelers safety Troy Polamalu (pictured, left) didn’t play in that game. With all due respect to Ben Roethlisberger, Troy Polamalu is Pittsburgh’s best player. Besides, even without Polamalu, the Jets only managed one offensive touchdown against Pittsburgh (that pretty Mark Sanchez bootleg). Things will not get easier with the Mighty Head and Shoulders spokesman back in the lineup.

What I’m trying to say is that, even though their wins on the road against the Colts and the Patriots were impressive, the Jets haven’t faced anything like the Pittsburgh defense in the playoffs.

What about the other side of the ball? The biggest reason Tom Brady and Patriots offense struggled wasn’t because of excellent pressure (despite all the sacks we saw)…it was because of excellent coverage downfield. Brady actually had plenty of time to throw; he just had nowhere to go. Brady (and Manning) are unwilling to run when no one’s open. That wont’ be a problem for Roethlisberger, who actually seems to play better when the pocket collapses and is a lot harder to bring down than those other two quarterbacks.

Despite the fact that I’m making this sound like it’s going to be a blowout, the Jets have obviously shown excellent resilience and shouldn’t be counted out. Still, I’m thinking that it’s going to be Pittsburgh taking on the Pack in the Super Bowl.

NFL 2011 Divisional Round Picks

Last week (3-1 for the playoffs), the only pick I missed was the one game that everybody — outside of Seattle — got wrong.

So I actually feel pretty good looking ahead to this weekend’s divisional round action. Let’s jump right in with both feet, shall we? (Sorry, the spirit of Wes Welker took over this column for a second.)

BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH
We all know both of these teams are pretty great (especially the Ravens…just ask them, they’ll tell you) and evenly-matched. Each squad won on the other’s home field this year (though the Ravens’ win came while Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was serving his four-game suspension).

So why do I like the Ravens? I think they have the potential to absolutely tear apart Pittsburgh’s patchwork (but improving) offensive line. I also think they have significantly more talent on offense (Psst! Hines Ward is washed up…pass it on!), which will come in handy in a game where points will almost certainly be at a premium.

GREEN BAY @ ATLANTA
How can you not like the Packers in this game? Even before last week’s victory in Philadelphia, they were pegged as the team no one wanted to play in the postseason. Meanwhile, the Falcons this year have always been the team we didn’t 100% buy into, even as they piled up the best record in the conference.

I’m picking the Falcons. Not so much because Atlanta squeaked out a win when these two teams met in the regular season. I just think their home field advantage and (more importantly) their running game will carry them to victory. More simply, there are WAY too many people who like the Packers, while ignoring the fact that Atlanta was the best team in the conference the entire year.

SEATTLE @ CHICAGO
You know the saying: “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on you again for actually believing that Matt Hasselbeck (pictured, left) and the Seahawks can recapture lightning in a bottle, go on the road (and away from their significant home field advantage) and beat a team with a much superior defense than the Saints unit they just torched.”

(Sorry, I guess I don’t really know how that saying goes.)

Anyway, I was as captivated and astounded as everyone else by the Seahawks’ inspired performance last weekend, but I just don’t see it happening again in Chicago. Didn’t it feel like we just watched the Seahawks have their best moment of the season? (And, yes, I realize the Seahawks won a game at Soldier Field earlier this year.) Although I’m concerned about the inherent train wreck potential of Jay Cutler, I feel pretty good about picking the Bears. (Then again, I felt great about picking New Orleans last week.)

N.Y. JETS @ NEW ENGLAND
Even if I were picking this game without having seen the Pats manhandle the Jets on that fateful Monday night, I’d say this is a HORRIBLE matchup for the Jets.

They have a shaky young quarterback going on the road. They don’t have a dominant running game anymore (which could help that young quarterback out).

But what about their vaunted defense, you ask? their best player (Darrelle Revis) is a shut-down corner who will absolutely take, um, somebody out of this game. The Jets always put Revis on the other team’s best receiver (like they did with a bitter Reggie Wayne last week), but the Patriots don’t really have a “best receiver” and spread the ball around brilliantly. Maybe the Jets can bring pressure and force a turnover. Good luck against the Pats excellent offensive line and a quarterback who currently holds the record for most passes without an interception and a team that only turned the ball over 10 times in 16 games.

Seriously, if you can make a reasonable compelling case as to why you think the Jets will (and can) win this game, I’d love to hear it.

NFL 2011 Wild Card Round Picks

The regular season is over and it’s time to wipe the slate clean!

That’s the cliché, isn’t it? Everyone’s 0-0 now.

Well, that’s good for me because I finished the regular season with a less than spectacular 125-101 record, but hey…that’s good enough to dominate the NFC West. (Ba-dum-ching!)

I have to run out to work on this Wild Card Saturday, so let me sneak in these picks for the first weekend of the postseason.

NEW ORLEANS @ SEATTLE
For the past week, all I’ve heard is people talking themselves into believing that the Seahawks won’t get crushed. (Not that they’ll actually win…just that they won’t get crushed.) Qwest Field is an incredibly loud place to play. The cross-country trip is rough for New Orleans. The rain should will a damper Drew Brees and the vaunted Saints offense. Matt Hasselbeck is really good at reading blitzes. The Saints can’t win without a running game.

I actually agree with the last one. The loss of Saints RBs Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas will keep the Saints from winning the Super Bowl. However, it will NOT keep them from beating the sorry Seahawks by more than two scores. Did you see how the Rams/Seahawks game turned into a depressing field goal war after that first possession? Don’t overthink this one people!

N.Y. JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS
Watching last year’s AFC Championship game between these two teams, two things stood out. 1.) How painful it was for anyone rooting for the Jets to see Peyton Manning masterfully figure out what the Jets were doing on defense in the second half, and proceed to dissect them and 2.) Colts star WR Reggie Wayne was pretty much invisible in that game, leading Manning to pick on the Jets’ other corner (RIP Lito Sheppard’s career) and Pierre Garcon to catch 11 balls for 150 yards.

Now the Jets have Antonio Cromartie as “the other corner”, who can be beat, but is a HUGE upgrade over Sheppard. I know Manning has dissected Rex Ryan defenses in his career, but I think the Jets defense will do enough to keep the Colts in check. (Meaning in the 20s.) The matchup no one’s talking about is the Jets offense against the Colts defense. We haven’t really heard boo from the Jets running game recently, so I think the Jets would be well-served to have Mark Sanchez (pictured, left, possibly about to turn the ball over) throw early and often to get him comfortable in the game. Add to that the Jets’ strong road record (the team and their fans seem to get anxious at home when things don’t go well), and I’m feeling a Jets upset.

BALTIMORE @ KANSAS CITY
I’ll keep this one much shorter. I LOVE Kansas City’s home field advantage, but I just don’t remember them beating anyone good this year. (Sorry, beating the Chargers in week 1 doesn’t count.)

This just in: Baltimore is good — even REALLY good when they want to be, so they should be able to handle the Chiefs.

GREEN BAY @ PHILADELPHIA
Am I really taking four road teams on wild card weekend? You’re damn right I am.

And not just because Michael Vick these last few weeks has looked more like Atlanta Falcons Michael Vick, and less than the Michael Vick who had his gear shipped to Canton after dismantling the Redskins on Monday night. The Packers have the team speed to match them and, more importantly, this isn’t your father’s fierce/blitzing Eagle’s D. I think Aaron Rodgers is going to carve these guys up Sunday night.

NFL 2010 Week 17 Picks

Week 17 of the NFL regular season is here!

I have to say – I’m kind of looking forward to just sitting down and watching football without having to worry about how it affects my fantasy team. (The East Dillon Lions came in second, in case you were wondering, after putting up their lowest point total of the season. Choke job!)

Last week was meh (8-8 week, 118-92 season), so let’s see if I can finish this crazy season on a high note.

CAROLINA @ ATLANTA
Like my friend Jon Foster, a die-hard Falcons fan (who knew there was such a thing?!), said, “If the Falcons can’t win at home against Carolina, they don’t even deserve to go to the playoffs!” (Much less have a #1 seed.)

PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND
As feisty and competitive as they looked in the early and midway points of the season, the Browns have looked inept and lifeless to close out the year. Bummer.

MINNESOTA @ DETROIT
Can’t wait to see what sort of weather calamity messes with the Vikings this week. Anyway, I’m going with the Lions, who are on fire! (Lions on fire = three straight wins.)

OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY
Chiefs coach Todd Haley is just crazy enough to play his guys a little bit too long just so he could win this game. (And finish 2010 with a perfect home record.)

MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND
My other friend Jared summed up Dolphins QB Chad Henne thusly: *$*O#&@^@!!!! (I think it may be time for some changes in Miami.)

TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS
I’d love to pick the Baby Bucs, but they simply don’t have enough guys to go into New Orleans and pull this out. The latest casualty was starting rookie WR Arrelious Benn. (Damn, you can tell I’m getting reinvested in the Bucs because I didn’t even have to look up how to spell “Arrelious Benn.”)

BUFFALO @ N.Y. JETS
The Jets are pretty much locked into the sixth seed, so I’m looking for Rex Ryan to give his guys some rest. (Hopefully, the entire team will take a rest from having embarrassing videos/tapes/photos/texts/telegrams about them released.)

CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE
The Ravens still have a chance to win the division, so I expect them to win a tough game over the Bengals and Carson Palmer, who looked positively giddy after the cancellation of the TOcho show last week.

JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON
I know David Garrard and Maurice Jones-Drew are out, but I’m just done with the Texans.

N.Y. GIANTS @ WASHINGTON
I know Rex Grossman is still in, but I’m just done with the Giants.

DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA
Sorry, I can’t help myself: I had a 1.5 point lead over my opponent in the fantasy finals going into Tuesday night’s game. I had DeSean Jackson, and he had Percy Harvin. With Joe Webb throwing to Harvin (and the Vikings secondary depleted), let’s just say I liked my chances. Thanks for nothing, Eagles! Watch them explode against Dallas.

ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO
Mike Singletary. I’ll miss you and your craziness most of all.

CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY
I know Lovie Smith SAYS he wants to beat the Packers, but risking the health of his team is simply not worth it going into the playoffs. Plus, the Packers look like they’re in ass-kicking mode.

TENNESEE @ INDIANAPOLIS
After all that’s been said and written, would YOU want to face the Colts in the first round of the playoffs?

SAN DIEGO @ DENVER
TEEEEEBBBBOOOOWWW!

ST. LOUIS @ SEATTLE
I don’t love the idea of rookie QB Sam Bradford (pictured, right) going into Seattle and locking up the division for the Rams…but then I remembered the Seahawks are starting the not-quite-immortal Charlie Whitehurst.

NFL 2010 Week 16 Picks

Christmas shopping, TV reruns and my general laziness have recently kept me from writing in my blog as often as I’d like to.

(Maybe I’ll have my “Black Swan” and “True Grit” reviews in by 2011, maybe I won’t. Maybe I’ll do a Top 10 list of the Best Movies and TV shows of the year, but I probably won’t.)

Still, I’ve managed to sneak my musings on the NFL season every Thursday and this week is no different. Maybe I should be paying more attention to that as well, since I had a pretty sad week (7-9 week, 110-84 season).

Starting tonight, there will be NFL games on four of the next five nights, so let’s jump right in:

CAROLINA @ PITTSBURGH
Carolina showed spunk I didn’t think they had last week in winning their second game of the season, but I don’t like their chances at all against a (depleted) Steelers team looking to bounce back from that tough loss against the Jets.

DALLAS @ ARIZONA
I know they’ve looked slightly better in recent weeks, but I’m not rushing out to buy a John Skelton jersey just yet. (Or any other jersey for that matter…those things cost like $70!)

WASHINGTON @ JACKSONVILLE
I’m in the title game for my fantasy football league. If I win, I get $300. We play a two-QB format, and Drew Brees is locked in as one of my quarterbacks. For the second spot, I’m trying to decide between Eli Manning at Green Bay (in what will probably be a frigid, low-scoring game), Sam Bradford (who’s been brutal lately) at home against the Niners or…wait for it…Rex Grossman (pictured, left)!

In a related story, (though I like the Jags to win the game) I’m leaning toward Grossman against the Jags bad pass defense. Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit…

DETROIT @ MIAMI
Detroit just won its first road game since 2007! (In Tampa…Blech!) There’s no limit to what they can do!

SAN FRANCISCO @ ST. LOUIS
We all want the winner of the NFC West to finish with a losing record because it’s never happened (and so we can REALLY complain about how bad that division is), but I have a feeling one of these teams is going to rally and finish 8-8.

TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY
I thought the Titans had quit on their season until they blew out Houston last week. Can I please get that same exact effort this week, since my fantasy appointment has Jamaal Charles going? Thanks!

N.Y. JETS @ CHICAGO
Is there a team more reliant on confidence and swagger than the Jets? I think they got some of that back last week, and I also like the way they play on the road. (When they don’t do well at home, the crowd becomes anxious and things get awkward in a hurry.)

NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO
I feel like this game will be a lot closer than people expect, but it’s pretty apparent that no one is beating the Patriots at this point. (They beat Green Bay with their C+ game last week.)

BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND
Even though they’ve been a letdown these past few weeks, I feel like the Browns (and especially their fans) will get up for this game against division rival Baltimore. (AKA the artists formerly known as the Cleveland Browns.)

HOUSTON @ DENVER
Sorry for being “Guy Who Won’t Stop Talking About His Fantasy Team”, but both of these teams are out of it, and neither coach will be back next year. I’ve got two or three guys going in this game (if Knowshon Moreno recovers in time), so I hope there are 100 points scored in this thing.

SAN DIEGO @ CINCINNATI
When your best player is also the guy who’s been trying the hardest all year, and you lose that guy for the season, you’re in trouble. When that guy is Terrell Owens, you’re REALLY in terrible shape.

INDIANAPOLIS @ OAKLAND
This feels like one of those games where the Raiders control the clock for 35-40 minutes, but Peyton Manning wins the games with a few strategically-placed, quick-strike touchdowns.

N.Y. GIANTS @ GREEN BAY
The Giants just suffered one of the most heartbreaking losses in recent memory, but a lot of people expect them to bounce back. I don’t. I think Tom Coughlin runts of chances this year. (Especially since Bill Cowher is publicly campaigning for his job.)

SEATTLE @ TAMPA BAY
The Bucs will win this one because the Seahawks are kind of a disaster, but it’ll be too little, too late.

MINNESOTA @ PHILADELPHIA
So, basically Joe Webb is a terrible version of Tarvaris Jackson (who is a terrible version of a good NFL quarterback).

NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA
Drew Brees…I’ve had you as my fantasy QB for the past three seasons. You brought New Orleans a title earlier this year, and I expect you to do the same for me.

NFL 2010 Week 15 Picks

It’s crunch time in the NFL season and, more importantly, in fantasy football land.

I’m in my main league’s fantasy playoffs for the third straight year and, so far, I have no (imaginary) rings to show for my efforts.

I’m trying not to over think my week 15 lineup (Pierre Garcon vs. Vincent Jackson for my third WR spot?!) the same way I’m trying not to over think my picks. Last week was a wash (8-8 week, 103-75 season), so we’ll see what happens now.

SAN FRANCISCO @ SAN DIEGO
The Niners looked pretty great last year, so they’re due for a turd of a performance. Also, don’t we all still kind of feel like the Chargers are going to the playoffs?

CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI
I picked both of these losing teams to win on the road last week, and they both let me down. Can I pick “tie” for this? Fine, I’ll go with the Browns now that Colt McCoy is back in the picture (and Jake Delhomme is out of it).

WASHINGTON @ DALLAS
The Panthers have a much worse record, but the Redskins are just as big a disaster zone.

HOUSTON @ TENNESEE
Think Houston WR Andre Johnson will be up for this game?

JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS
The Jags have pretty much done everything to show they’re legit…but I’m not going to bury the Colts until they’re in the ground and the Jaguars are standing over them with shovels.

KANSAS CITY @ ST. LOUIS
Whether Chiefs QB Matt Cassel (pictured, right) plays or not, I’m taking the Rams, who are always feisty at home. If Cassel doesn’t play, the Chiefs may not get 10 points.

BUFFALO @ MIAMI
Oh oh…Miami’s doing that thing where they hover around the outskirts of the playoff picture again. Don’t sleep on them.

DETROIT @ TAMPA BAY
Hopefully the Bucs can actually win this game AND avoiding losing a few more starters to injured reserve.

ARIZONA @ CAROLINA
I’ve got the weirdly-resurgent Cardinals beating the Panthers, but the real losers are anyone who has to watch this game. Yikes!

NEW ORLEANS @ BALTIMORE
Come on, Drew Brees! Carry me to the fantasy finals!

PHILADELPHIA @ N.Y. GIANTS
Should be a great game, but I’m going with the Eagles because of the Giants’ tendency to lay eggs at home this season.

ATLANTA @ SEATTLE
I think this game will be closer than people think…which means the Falcons will only win by about two touchdowns.

N.Y. JETS @ PITTSBURGH
Is there a worse possible place for a quarterback that is struggling with turnovers to visit than Pittsburgh? Egads!

DENVER @ OAKLAND
Come on, Knowshon Moreno! Carry me to the fantasy finals! (Definitely didn’t think I’d be saying that at the start of the year.)

GREEN BAY @ NEW ENGLAND
If Aaron Rodgers plays (which I can’t shake the feeling he will), the Packers have a chance. If he doesn’t play, the Packers may not get five first downs. Either way, the Patriots will likely continue their roll.

CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA
The Vikings options are: A.) Tarvaris Jackson and his turf toe, B.) Brett Favre and his mangled hand, C.) Third-stringer Joe Webb. Yeah, I’m going with the other team.

NFL 2010 Week 14 Picks

Told you I’d be back.

I’m feeling good. I’m in my fantasy league playoffs for the third straight year (only person to do that), I did decently in my picks last time out (10-6 week, 95-67 overall) and I’m off to a good start this week (1-0 after the Colts-Titans game).

Let’s jump right into the rest of week 14!

CLEVELAND @ BUFFALO
I’m tempted to go with Buffalo because they’ve been feisty most of the year, despite their horrid record. Then I remembered that they have a pathetic run defense and I imagined Cleveland’s Peyton Hillis running for 180 yards and 3 TDs against them.

CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH
Carson Palmer just looks like he wants to go home. Any thoughts on who’ll be coaching the Bengals once Marvin Lewis gets fired. (You can’t fall for the “trying to draw the other team offsides when we have no intention of running a play” trick and keep your job, right?)

GREEN BAY @ DETROIT
This feels like one of those games where the Packers jump out to a big lead, the Lions make it more interesting then it should be before they lose by eight points.

N.Y. GIANTS @ MINNESOTA
I don’t think Brett Favre is going to play this week. And if he does, I think the Giants pass rush knocks him out by halftime.

TAMPA BAY @ WASHINGTON
The Bucs playoff hopes may be evaporating (Aqib Talib, their best player on defense is on injured reserve), but at least they get to beat up on the Redskins. Even the Titans think the Redskins are a mess.

ATLANTA @ CAROLINA
Carolina showed signs of life at Seattle last week until, apparently, someone reminded them they’re the worst team in the league, and they promptly blew it.

OAKLAND @ JACKSONVILLE
When do we start talking about Maurice Jones-Drew (pictured, left) as an MVP candidate? Maybe after he runs for another 150 or so yards against the Raiders’ suspect run defense on Sunday. (And DEFINITELY after he starts playing quarterback.)

SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO
Alex Smith is back at the controls for the 49ers…and I’m back on picking against them. (Not that I ever stopped.)

ST. LOUIS @ NEW ORLEANS
I know the Rams are at the top of their division, but this one has blowout written all over it. Ok, that’s not exactly accurate. It’s more like this one has “blowout” written neatly on the side of it.

MIAMI @ N.Y. JETS
The Jets’ collective ass is still red after the spanking they took from the Patriots. Do we think Dolphins QB Chad Henne makes it to the end of this game?

DENVER @ ARIZONA
Fire your coach, start winning games. Seems like the Bengals should’ve tried this a month and a half ago.

KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO
Even if Chief QB Matt Cassel hadn’t undergone an appendectomy, I’d pick the Chargers because (last week’s debacle notwithstanding) they have an annoying habit of winning games at the end of the season and somehow winding up with the AFC West title.

NEW ENGLAND @ CHICAGO
It took me more than a month, but I’m on the Bears bandwagon. (Well that, and I think the Pats are due for a letdown game.)

PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS
Dallas is hot, and Michael Vick keeps getting nicked up here and there. I smell upset.

BALTIMORE @ HOUSTON
The Texans NEED this game if they want to finish they’re customary 8-8/9-7.

NFL Week 14 Thursday Night NFL Pick

My picks for the full weekend slate will be up before Sunday.

Just wanted to sneak in my pick for the Thursday night game on NFL Network that a good portion of the country won't be watching.

INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE

Even if the Colts didn't desperately need this game, I'd still give Peyton Manning (pictured, right, probably about to throw another interception) and Co. the nod over the increasingly-pathetic Titans.

NFL 2010 Week 13 Picks

Hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday.

I have a few things to be thankful for myself. I’m thankful that I did decently with my picks (9-7 week, 85-61). I’m thankful that I’ve all but clinched one of the four playoff spots in my 10-team fantasy league. (And currently sitting on top of the standings.)

Let’s see if we can keep the good vibes rolling with the week 13 picks.

HOUSTON @ PHILADELPHIA
Count me among the millions of Andre Johnson (pictured, right) fantasy owners who heaved a sigh of relief when it was announced WR Andre Johnson wouldn’t be suspended. Count me also among the millions of DeSean Jackson owners hoping for a big game against the Texans’ terrible pass defense. Then again, every time I’ve expected a shoot out, it’s been a disappointment. Watch the Eagles win by a pedestrian score like 17-7. Blech.

NEW ORLEANS @ CINCINNATI
If the Bengals switched Palmers at the QB position, would anyone notice? (I guess if they started getting good QB play people would notice — they’d know Jordan was in there.)

CHICAGO @ DETROIT
Fine, Bears, you ARE who you thought you were. You’re good. My bad.

SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY
Yes, they looked great at Monday night, but for some reason I’m not in love with the prospect of picking Troy Smith and Brian “One Concussion Away from Joining Frank Gore on IR” Westbrook on the road at Lambeau.

JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE
The best part about the Andre Johnson/Cortland Finnegan fight? Usually people feel at least a little bad when someone gets their brains beat in by someone bigger, but when Finnegan got jacked up, everyone seemed delighted. Let’s just say the 2010 Titans aren’t the most cohesive group.

DENVER @ KANSAS CITY
Denver is kind of a mess and, on top of that, Chiefs coach Todd Haley will be looking for revenge after what he perceived as the Broncos running up the score in their earlier matchup. Dwayne Bowe might catch 7 TDs. (And I might bash my head against a wall 7 times for trading him to my fantasy football league nemesis five weeks ago.)

CLEVELAND @ MIAMI
The Dolphins are the kind of team who seem to stay mathematically alive for the playoffs until the very last week, even though they have no chance of actually doing anything. (The Jaguars are also guilty of this.) Look for a win to help continue that trend.

BUFFALO @ MINNESOTA
Looking forward to finding out how the Bills blow this game as the Vikes huddle together to sing “Kumbaya” with their new coach.

WASHINGTON @ N.Y. GIANTS
I watched the Giants shakily defeat the Jaguars at home last week. They’re do for a big-time win where they pummel someone to hook us into thinking they’re one of the league’s best teams. (Remember when people were saying that way back in November?)

OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO
I’m looking for the Chargers to win all their games from here on out. Until they get to the playoffs, of course.

CAROLINA @ SEATTLE
The Panthers showed me some heart last week, while the Seahawks rolled over. I can’t believe I’m doing this, but I’m going to go with the team which, two weeks ago, I said I would bet against if my life depended on me getting a prediction right.

ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY
I was all set to pick the Falcons, but then the Bucs realized safety Sabby Piscitelli this week. That bum spent more time chasing after receivers scoring long touchdowns than he did tackling people. Now, I feel strangely rejuvenated about our chances this year.

ST. LOUIS @ ARIZONA
What is it about the Cardinals and Monday Night Football that makes their personnel go into instant-classic, post-game rants? For some reason, Arizona is sticking with Derek Anderson at QB, so I’m going to go ahead and pick the other team.

DALLAS @ INDIANAPOLIS
Talk about how Peyton Manning is losing it (without many of his top weapons) is getting louder, so I look to him to unleash a 350 yard, 4TD performance this week. (What has two thumbs and is facing a guy who has Manning as his fantasy QB? This guy!)

PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE
Even if Big Ben weren’t banged up, I’d be tempted to pick the Ravens. The Steelers haven’t looked quite right in a few weeks.

N.Y. JETS @ NEW ENGLAND
It’s hard to do better than this Monday Night Game. It’s a division game between hated rivals, and they’re tied for the best record in the conference. Even though the Jets had been pulling games out of their butts before their big win over the Bengals, I’ll go with the Pats this time around. It just FEELS like they should play a third time this year, with each team having won once.

NFL 2010 Week 12 Picks

I love the NFL on Thanksgiving!

Few things are better than vegging out in front of a TV and watching football before (mmm, those smells) and after (oy, I can’t move) Thanksgiving dinner.

Speaking of which, I did decently this past week (9-7 week, 76-54 overall) but hope to do even better this time out. (But I probably won’t.)

NEW ENGLAND @ DETROIT
The Lions are so pathetic that my favorite thing about their mandatory Thanksgiving game is that I get to use the picture accompanying this column.

NEW ORLEANS @ DALLAS
The Saints seems to have found their groove offensively. On the other hand, I’m hearing whispers about some people actually talking themselves into the Cowboys running the table and making a playoff run. One of these two things will come to a stop tomorrow. (Hint: it probably won’t be the Saints’ offensive explosion.)

CINCINATTI @ N.Y. JETS
Did you hear where T.O. called Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis an “average” cornerback. The Bengals are such in the pits that T.O. is now just saying things to hear himself talk.

GREEN BAY @ ATLANTA
In a showdown between the best two teams in the NFC (for this week), I’ll take the Falcons in their dome.

PITTSBURGH @ BUFFALO
Buffalo showed last week that it has some real firepower (I think they just scored on the Bengals again), but I think the Pittsburgh D is a different story.

CAROLINA @ CLEVELAND
In a season with pretty mediocre teams, we really should applaud the Panthers for being 100% the worst, and having the fortitude to be flat-out TERRIBLE.

JACKSONVILLE @ N.Y. GIANTS
The Giants are hurting (both figuratively and literally), but that’s precisely when they seem to respond to one of Tom Coughlin’s (figurative, I hope) tongue-lashings.

MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON
I feel like the Vikings will be able to take a long enough break from celebrating the firing of coach/knucklehead Brad Childress long enough to take care of business against the Skins.

TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON
So apparently, Vince Young texted an apology to head coach Jeff Fisher for being a cry baby. Apparently, that’s the 2010 version of “manning up.” The Texans are reeling, but as much as I want to take someone named Rusty Smith on the road in his first start, I just can’t.

KANSAS CITY @ SEATTLE
Two of the league’s best home teams. The Seahawks are at home, plus it feels like it’s time for Seattle to pull off one of its inexplicable wins.

MIAMI @ OAKLAND
The Tyler Thigpen era in Miami did NOT get off to a good start. I like Oakland to bounce back in the Black Hole after getting a spanking (sounds naughtier than it was) from Pittsburgh.

ST. LOUIS @ DENVER
St. Louis comes close to winning on the road, but seem to always come back short. Plus, Knowshon Moreno will make his 2010 Fantasy Football debut on my roster his week. (Let’s just say Tom Coughlin isn’t the only guy benching Ahmad Bradshaw this week.)

PHILADELPHIA @ CHICAGO
Ok, I’ve been a persistent hater of Chicago: if they win THIS one, then I’m on board. Promise.

TAMPA BAY @ BALTIMORE
Call it a homer pick, but the Bucs are a different (better) team than the one that got blown out earlier this year by the Saints and Steelers.

SAN DIEGO @ INDIANAPOLIS
The Chargers usually give Peyton Manning trouble, but the Colts need this one to take control of/keep pace in their division. (We all know the Chargers are going to win every game in December, so they’ll be fine.)

SAN FRANCISO @ ARIZONA
Tennesse @ Jacksonville…you have some SERIOUS competition for Worst Monday Night Football game of the year!

NFL 2010 Week 11 Picks

Yeah, so last week didn’t go so well with the picks.

I featured a picture of Chad Pennington along with my column (he’s out for the season after two passes, if you’re scoring at home), and the picks themselves were nothing to write home about (6-8 week, 67-47 overall).

I blame these stupid Thursday night games for rushing me. Also, my lack of insight into the NFL probably hindered me. Let’s see if I can do any better this week.

CHICAGO @ MIAMI

Sorry, I still don’t think the Bears are very good. Also, I don’t think new QB Tyler Thigpen is that bad. (Best third-stringer in the league behind Colt McCoy?) If this game were in the Chicago cold, you could talk me into the Bears. Since weather won’t be a factor in the Miami evening, I think the Dolphins are the better team, everything else being equal.

BUFFALO @ CINCINNATI

Yes, the Bengals are a cake wreck, but they’re not untalented. At some point, pride has to kick in, right? (Ok, maybe not.)

DETROIT @ DALLAS

Break up the Cowboys! How many more wins until people delude themselves into talking playoffs for Dallas? Two more? Three more?

WASHINGTON @ TENNESSEE

I think the Eagles just scored another touchdown on the Skins. Just a complete embarrassment.

ARIZONA @ KANSAS CITY

I thought Arizona was supposed to be good at home, but they got hammered by Seattle last week. Let’s just say I don’t like them on the road in one of the toughest stadiums to play in.

GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA

This is Aaron Rodgers “Mortal Kombat”-style “Finish him!” game in regards to Favre and the Vikings. Mostly, Favre.

HOUSTON @ N.Y. JETS

The Texans have to be WAY down after last week’s Hail Mary loss. I actually think they bounce back this week and shock the world. (Plus, they’re under .500...they have to always be hovering just around the .500 mark.)

OAKLAND @ PITTSBURGH

I have a feeling the Steelers are going to be annoyed that they got their necks stepped on by the Patriots.

BALTIMORE @ CAROLINA

If somebody held a gun to my head and told me I had to correctly pick one NFL game in any week of any season or he would shoot me, I would pick Baltimore in this one. That’s how bad Carolina is.

CLEVELAND @ JACKSONVILLE

The Jags HAVE to be riding high, but I like the scrappy Browns to win this one on the road. They’ve given great teams (Saints, Pats, Jets) all they could handle, so they should be able to take the Jags, no?

TAMPA BAY @ SAN FRANCISCO

If I told you before the start of the season that one of these teams would be 6-3 and the other would be 3-6, would anyone believe the Bucs would be 6-3? I mean anyone who isn’t actually ON the Bucs.

SEATTLE @ NEW ORLEANS

Ok, Seattle...fine. I’m ripping off the “horrible road team” tag I slapped on you. But you’re still not going into New Orleans and beating them coming off a bye.

ATLANTA @ ST. LOUIS

The Rams are tough at home, but if the Falcons are who we think they are (there’s Best Team in the NFC buzz) they need to win this one.

INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW ENGLAND

Tom Brady played the best he’s played in YEARS against the Steelers last weekend. Peyton Manning (pictured, right) and the Colts are wounded. When these two teams get together, it’s usually an instant classic, and I expect nothing less. It’s the regular season, so I’m taking Manning and the Colts. (Boom! Backhanded compliment!)

N.Y. GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA

I was one of the millions of fantasy football owners who watched in horror as Michael Vick lit up the scoreboard for my opponent, helped him overcome a big lead and destroyed my spirit. He WAS sensational, but after the never-ending hype he HAS to be due for a come down, no? Conversely, is there any way the Giants don’t whip their own asses into shape after being embarrassed at home by the Cowboys.

DENVER @ SAN DIEGO

This should be another shootout. I think the late-season Chargers comeback continues.

NFL 2010 Week 9 Picks

We’re at the halfway point of the season.

That means we should have a decent idea of who’s good and who’s bad — turns out pretty much every one is kinda bad. (Except for the Cowboys…they’re REALLY bad.)

Me? I’m ok (8-5 week, 51-36 season). Let’s see if, unlike almost every time in the NFL, I can break away and become a dominant power.

TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA
Maybe I’m being a cynical Bucs fan, but I kind of liked it better when no one was talking about Raheem Morris (pictured, right) and his guys and we were the young team that snuck up on people, allowed 150 yards on the ground and somehow won. People are saying this could be a beating, and usually when most people are saying the same thing about an NFL game/team, it almost never happens. I think people are right about this one.

CHICAGO @ BUFFALO
A few weeks ago, I said that Buffalo needed to prove they could win a game before I picked them to actually win one. I’m going back on it: they’re one of the most entertaining 0-7 teams in recent memory. Also, the Bears are kind of horrible.

NEW ENGLAND @ CLEVELAND
New England is quietly rolling with the best record in the league. The Law of Mediocrity in the 2010 NFL season dictates they MUST be knocked down a peg, and the feisty Browns could be the ones to do it.

N.Y. JETS @ DETROIT
The last time the Jets suffered an embarrassing home loss (week 1 against Baltimore), they rolled off five straight wins and looked like the best team in the league. Good luck with that, Detroit.

NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA
The Saints (and Drew Brees) seemed to find their mojo in that big win against the Steelers last week, and I think they’ll keep it up. (Or I hope they keep it up…my Drew Brees-led fantasy team has lost two in a row, and I need to right the ship.)

MIAMI @ BALTIMORE
Baltimore’s really good (probably great), but Miami just gets it done on the road. I suppose they take their talents out of South Beach.

SAN DIEGO @ HOUSTON
It’s about time for San Diego’s second-half turnaround (it seems like TE Antonio Gates would try to play even if both his feet were removed). It’s also time for the 4-3 Texans to fall back to .500 so they can finish the year in their familiar 9-7, 8-8 sweet spot. Be who you are, Chargers and Texans.

ARIZONA @ MINNESOTA
My fantasy football opponent has Adrian Peterson this week, and the Cardinals rush defense is dreadful. Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit smoking/drinking/sniffing glue.

N.Y. GIANTS @ SEATTLE
Seattle is REALLY good at home, and the rolling Giants are kind of due for a stinkbomb, aren’t they? Sorry, I can’t. Not with Charlie Whitehurst in the house.

INDIANAPOLIS @ PHILADELPHIA
Are we entirely sure that Peyton Manning couldn’t have me, you, and your grandmother as his receiving corps and STILL not turn us into Pro Bowlers?

KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND
Game of the week! Seriously…stop laughing! I’ll take Oakland at home until someone proves they can keep them from scoring more than 30 points. (Add that to the list of sentences I never thought I’d type in the next decade.)

DALLAS @ GREEN BAY
Wade Phillips knows he’s going to get fired. At which point does he snap and start doing weird stuff like coaching without pants?

PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI
Finally, a nationwide audience will be exposed to just how bad Carson Palmer is.