NFL 2011 Conference Championship Picks

Yikes!

My last week (1-3 week, 4-4 playoffs) of picks was almost as big a catastrophe as the Ravens’ second half against the Steelers. (I said ALMOST because nothing is worse than the Ravens’ second half against the Steelers!)

I’m not even that bummed out that I was spectacularly wrong in predicting a Patriots blowout win against the Jets. First off, I was actually rooting for the Jets. Secondly, even Jets fans — if they’re being honest with themselves (ha!) — didn’t really think they’d win last week. So it’s been amusing watching them pretend that they knew they’d beat the Pats all along. (Silly Jets fans!)

As far as the Packers/Falcons…there’s no excuse for that one. Green Bay just smoked Atlanta.

Anyway, we’ve got two great games coming up this weekend, so let’s jump in.

GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO
The focus on this matchup has understandably been on how Aaron Rodgers — who actually burst into flames at one point during last week’s game— is going to fare against the Chicago Bears vaunted defense. (“Vaunted” is one of those words we never use in conversations outside of sports, isn’t it?)

I actually think the Bears defense will play as well as they did during Rodgers in the regular season, which is to say they kept him from going off. That means the key matchup will be the Packers underrated defense (and I only say “underrated” because Rodgers gets so much attention) against Jay Cutler and the Bears offense. I think they have the potential to force multiple turnovers.

On the other hand, I expect the Packers to cut WAY down on the mistakes (especially the penalties) that plagued them during their regular season loss in Chicago and advance to the Super Bowl.

N.Y. JETS @ PITTSBURGH
Ok, so I (along with pretty much every other NFL analyst, including people who are actually credible) had the Jets losing last week. But bear with me, and I’ll tell you why they’ll lose this week.

We all know about their gutty regular season win in Pittsburgh. You also probably know that Steelers safety Troy Polamalu (pictured, left) didn’t play in that game. With all due respect to Ben Roethlisberger, Troy Polamalu is Pittsburgh’s best player. Besides, even without Polamalu, the Jets only managed one offensive touchdown against Pittsburgh (that pretty Mark Sanchez bootleg). Things will not get easier with the Mighty Head and Shoulders spokesman back in the lineup.

What I’m trying to say is that, even though their wins on the road against the Colts and the Patriots were impressive, the Jets haven’t faced anything like the Pittsburgh defense in the playoffs.

What about the other side of the ball? The biggest reason Tom Brady and Patriots offense struggled wasn’t because of excellent pressure (despite all the sacks we saw)…it was because of excellent coverage downfield. Brady actually had plenty of time to throw; he just had nowhere to go. Brady (and Manning) are unwilling to run when no one’s open. That wont’ be a problem for Roethlisberger, who actually seems to play better when the pocket collapses and is a lot harder to bring down than those other two quarterbacks.

Despite the fact that I’m making this sound like it’s going to be a blowout, the Jets have obviously shown excellent resilience and shouldn’t be counted out. Still, I’m thinking that it’s going to be Pittsburgh taking on the Pack in the Super Bowl.