NFL 2011 Divisional Round Picks

Last week (3-1 for the playoffs), the only pick I missed was the one game that everybody — outside of Seattle — got wrong.

So I actually feel pretty good looking ahead to this weekend’s divisional round action. Let’s jump right in with both feet, shall we? (Sorry, the spirit of Wes Welker took over this column for a second.)

BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH
We all know both of these teams are pretty great (especially the Ravens…just ask them, they’ll tell you) and evenly-matched. Each squad won on the other’s home field this year (though the Ravens’ win came while Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was serving his four-game suspension).

So why do I like the Ravens? I think they have the potential to absolutely tear apart Pittsburgh’s patchwork (but improving) offensive line. I also think they have significantly more talent on offense (Psst! Hines Ward is washed up…pass it on!), which will come in handy in a game where points will almost certainly be at a premium.

GREEN BAY @ ATLANTA
How can you not like the Packers in this game? Even before last week’s victory in Philadelphia, they were pegged as the team no one wanted to play in the postseason. Meanwhile, the Falcons this year have always been the team we didn’t 100% buy into, even as they piled up the best record in the conference.

I’m picking the Falcons. Not so much because Atlanta squeaked out a win when these two teams met in the regular season. I just think their home field advantage and (more importantly) their running game will carry them to victory. More simply, there are WAY too many people who like the Packers, while ignoring the fact that Atlanta was the best team in the conference the entire year.

SEATTLE @ CHICAGO
You know the saying: “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on you again for actually believing that Matt Hasselbeck (pictured, left) and the Seahawks can recapture lightning in a bottle, go on the road (and away from their significant home field advantage) and beat a team with a much superior defense than the Saints unit they just torched.”

(Sorry, I guess I don’t really know how that saying goes.)

Anyway, I was as captivated and astounded as everyone else by the Seahawks’ inspired performance last weekend, but I just don’t see it happening again in Chicago. Didn’t it feel like we just watched the Seahawks have their best moment of the season? (And, yes, I realize the Seahawks won a game at Soldier Field earlier this year.) Although I’m concerned about the inherent train wreck potential of Jay Cutler, I feel pretty good about picking the Bears. (Then again, I felt great about picking New Orleans last week.)

N.Y. JETS @ NEW ENGLAND
Even if I were picking this game without having seen the Pats manhandle the Jets on that fateful Monday night, I’d say this is a HORRIBLE matchup for the Jets.

They have a shaky young quarterback going on the road. They don’t have a dominant running game anymore (which could help that young quarterback out).

But what about their vaunted defense, you ask? their best player (Darrelle Revis) is a shut-down corner who will absolutely take, um, somebody out of this game. The Jets always put Revis on the other team’s best receiver (like they did with a bitter Reggie Wayne last week), but the Patriots don’t really have a “best receiver” and spread the ball around brilliantly. Maybe the Jets can bring pressure and force a turnover. Good luck against the Pats excellent offensive line and a quarterback who currently holds the record for most passes without an interception and a team that only turned the ball over 10 times in 16 games.

Seriously, if you can make a reasonable compelling case as to why you think the Jets will (and can) win this game, I’d love to hear it.