John's 2011 Oscar Picks

Even though I just finished slaving away over my top 10 of 2010 list, I figured I'd try to sneak in some Oscar picks too.

Truth be told, it was kind of fun because 2010 ended up being a pretty solid year for movies. (Whereas last year, it kind of felt like we had to strain to find 10 Best Picture nominees.)

Anyway, I hope you don't mind if I just jump right in. Below you'll find my official pick for who I believe WILL win tonight, as well as who would actually get my vote.

(Warning: My picks will become completely arbitrary as we get to the more obscure categories.)

Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
127 Hours
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone


Will win: The King's Speech
Should win: Toy Story 3


What John Thinks: "The King's Speech" had Oscar written all over it even before it opened at your local movie theatre. "Toy Story 3" will never win because voters will see its inevitable Best Animated Film Oscar as enough of a reward. I wonder if there will soon be a year when a highly-acclaimed animated movie bypasses the Best Animated Film category and pushes all of its chips onto the Best Picture race.



Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening (The Kids are All Right)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

Will and should win: Natalie Portman.

What John Thinks: I've said it before, but I'll say it again. I think she gave the best performance out of any actor last year.



Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
James Franco (127 Hours)

Will win: Colin Firth
Should win: Jesse Eisenberg

What John Thinks: Firth will be an extremely worthy winner for his triumphant and crowd-pleasing turn in "The King's Speech", but I'd give the trophy to Eisenberg for his fearlessly abrasive performance and the way he made Aaron Sorkin's challenging dialogue sound like it was written especially for him.


Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
John Hawkes (Winter's Bone)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids are All Right)
Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)

Will win: Christian Bale
Should win: Geoffrey Rush

What John Thinks: I'm going to be thrilled for Bale because he's long overdue and he's incredible in "The Fighter", but Rush (a past Oscar winner) was my favorite thing in "The King's Speech" and worthy of the prize.



Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)

Will win: Melissa Leo
Should win: Amy Adams

What John Thinks: Leo's been mostly cleaning up at the major award ceremonies, so she's likely to do the same at the Oscars. (Even if there's a chance that she might be a little crazy.) I'd give the award to Adams, who radiated strength and toughness (words not usually associated with Amy Adams), as well as love in "The Fighter." Steinfeld is also a strong contender, but that was CLEARLY a lead performance, so I wouldn't give her my vote since she doesn't belong in this category.



Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Will and should win: Toy Story 3

What John Thinks: Duh! It's the only one of these that's also up for Best Picture, so which do YOU think the Academy likes the most.



Best Documentary Short Subject
Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
The Warriors of Qiugang

Will win: Killing in the Name
Should win: The Warriors of Qiugang

What John Thinks: Obviously, I haven't seen either, but "Killing in the Name" sounds appropriately grave. Meanwhile, I'd like to see "The Warrios of Quigang" win just so I could watch whichever poor soul is presenting struggle to pronounce "Quigang."



Best Short Film (Animated)
Day & Night
The Gruffalo
Let's Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)

Will win: Day & Night
Should win: The Gruffalo

What John Thinks: Pixar's "Day & Night" will win, but I actually thought it was one of their weakest offerings. I'm going with "The Gruffalo", which is also my nickname for Mark Ruffalo.



Best Short Film (Live Action)
The Confession
The Crush
God of Love
Na Wewe
Wish 143

Win and should win: God of Love

What John Thinks: "God of Love" has this on lockdown. Someone please let me know if I'm wright, since I'll probably be in the bathroom during this part.



Achievement in Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

Will and should win: Inception

What John Thinks: Since "Inception" will likely be shut out of most of the major awards, I expect it to mostly clean up in the technical categories. I'm not sure how much of "Alice in Wonderland" was art direction, and how much was green screen. "The King Speech" could pull a slight upset.



Achievement in Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Will win: True Grit
Should win: Black Swan

What John Thinks: "True Grit" was a big hit and has the second most Oscar nominations out of any movie this year. Yet outside of this category and Steinfeld for Supporting Actress, it has little chance of winning anything. I say the Academy throws them a bone. I'd give the prize to "Black Swan" and its stunning, urgent camera work.



Achievement in Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

Will win and should win: The King's Speech

What John Thinks: Again, I'm just not sure how much of the stuff in "Alice" was actually there. I'm playing it safe and going with "The King's Speech", which is what the Academy is likely to do as well.



Achievement in Directing
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
David O. Russell (The Fighter)
Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
David Fincher (The Social Network)
Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit)

Will win and should win: David Fincher

What John Thinks: The actual race appears to be between Fincher and Tom Hooper. In my world Fincher would be battling it out with Aronofsky. Either way, I'd give Fincher the edge for crafting an entertaining movie out of a bunch of guys sitting around dorm rooms, huddled around computers or sitting at a deposition.



Best Documentary Feature
Exit through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land

Will win: Inside Job
Should win: Gasland

What John Thinks: The Academy will want to look current by honoring a film about our country's economic meltdown. I'm going with Gasland because...it's the only one I've seen (a little bit of).



Achievement in Makeup
Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman

Will win and should win: The Wolfman

What John Thinks: Makeup artist Rick Baker is a legend, and I suspect his makeup work was probably the best part of a crappy movie. He'll take the Oscar over weak competition.



Achievement in Film Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network

Will win: The Social Network
Should win: Black Swan

What John Thinks: My real "Should win" is "Inception" (how the heck is it not up for Editing), but I think "The Social Network" will take the prize for keeping the pace moving and interesting.



Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Biutiful (Mexico)
Dogtooth (Greece)
In a Better World (Denmark)
Incendies (Canada)
Hors la Loi (Algeria)

Will and should win: In a Better World

What John Thinks: It won this category at the Golden Globes, so, um, there's that!


Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network

Will win: The Social Network
Should win: Inception

What John Thinks: "The King's Speech" is a possible spoiler, but I don't think the Academy will pass up the chance to seem hip and give the prize to a deserving Trent Reznor. (But not TOO hip, since Daft Punk weren't nominated for "Tron: Legacy.") Meanwhile, I'd give the Oscar to "Inception" composer Hans Zimmer. Thanks to dozens of YouTube videos, we now know his "Inception" score instantly makes ANYTHING seem more exciting.



Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)
"Coming Home" from Country Strong
"I See the Light" from Tangled
"If I Rise" from 127 Hours
"We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3

Will win: "If I Rise"
Should win: "I See the Light"

What John Thinks: I see this as the only realistic chance for the Academy to honor "127 Hours." I'd give it to "I See the Light" from "Tangled", because I actually have a clear recollection of the song. (On the other hand, I saw "Toy Story 3", and I LOVED "Toy Story 3", but I have no idea what the hell "We Belong Together" is supposed to be.)



Achievement in Sound Editing
Inception
Toy Story 3
TRON: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable



Achievement in Sound Mixing
Inception
The King's Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit

Will and should win: Inception

What John Thinks: I'm taking "Inception" to win both "Sound" categories even if I STILL have no idea what the difference between them is.



Achievement in Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2

Will win: Inception
Should win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I

What John Thinks: "Inception" will win because no movie was smarter about the way it utilized its visual effects to serve the story, but I'd reward "Harry Potter" for its consistently excellent (and now-underappreciated) effects. (Including several characters who were completely computer generated.)



Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Will and should win: The Social Network

What John Thinks: Aaron Sorkin's verbose and rapid-fire screenplay is a lock.



Original Screenplay
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids are All Right
The King's Speech

Will win and should win: The King's Speech

What John Thinks: I gave "Inception" a strong look here, but it IS a little heavy and clunky on the exposition. That's why I'm going with "The King's Speech", which turned a potentially stuffy and specific story and transformed it into a film with universal appeal. (I'll let other people fight over how true to life it was.)