NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks

It's appropriate that I finished with a semi-strong record on the unpredictable final week of the regular season (9-7 week, 150-96 overall). That's about a 0.610 winning percentage (or about a 10-6 record), which would likely be good enough to get me a wild-card spot in the playoffs (sorry, Cleveland)

Speaking of the playoffs (segue way!) the NFL's wild card weekend is upon us. The last two Super Bowl champions have played on wild card weekend (Colts, Steelers). As you know it's a completely different ballgame come playoff time — instead of having to analyze 16 games, my lazy ass only has to break down four. Yay!

What I'm not excited about is that these match ups are pretty difficult to predict. I promise I'll do my best, if you promise not to make too much fun of me when I'm wrong.

WASHINGTON @ SEATTLE
Boom, right off the bat, an incredibly tough game to predict. Washington hasn't lost since November, but Seattle is probably the better team, and they're at home where they're great. Still, the weather's going to be crappy, and that favors Washington's run-oriented offense more than it does Seattle's pass happy attack (hey, didn't you used to be Shaun Alexander?) Throw in the fact that the Redskins seem like they're on a mission following Sean Taylor's death.

Also, I just don't like Seattle. Nothing against the city, I just mean the Seahawks. It's probably an East Coast bias, but I just don't think they're THAT good, so it's nothing against Seattle. I've heard it's a lovely city. Except for it's crappy weather.

JACKSONVILLE @ PITTSBURGH
Another excellent matchup and, though Jacksonville beat them on this very field a few weeks ago, I just like Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers at home with those fans against the largely unproven Jacksonville Jaguars. Running the ball (and stopping the run) is mostly about attitude and effort, and I can't see the Steelers lacking in these departments on Saturday.

Finally, I liked Jacksonville's chances a lot more before Fred Taylor started pre-whining about Pittsburgh's horrible turf. That's like already making an excuse for why they lost.

NY GIANTS @ TAMPA BAY
Everybody's high on the Giants because of their excellent effort against New England and they're picking them to beat the Bucs. Personally, the Giants pretty much played how I expected them to. And this Sunday, I expect them (and especially Eli Manning) to play badly and for the Bucs to beat them. This is probably the most up and down team in the playoffs and I don't see that changing.

Jeff Garcia will have pressure, but he's not the kind of guy to routinely throw three picks. Eli, on the other hand, IS that guy and I think the Bucs defense will confuse him. This is all assuming the monster that is Giants RB Brandon Jacobs doesn't run wild on the Bucs. Still, the Giants made a big deal about supposed bulletin board material from the Bucs Ronde Barber after he said he'd rather play the Giants because they're inconsistent and have injuries. Which part of that statement is supposed to be untrue? If the Giants need garbage like that to get excited about a playoff game, then I don't like their chances.

TENNESSEE @ SAN DIEGO
It should be the most obvious game, but it's the one that scares me the most. Tennessee is missing a tight end, a leading receiver and its star quarterback is battling an injury (I'd be shocked if Vince Young doesn't play). Meanwhile, San Diego is hot and seems to have finally put it together by running the ball with the league's best player (duh!) and playing defense.

What scares me is that whenever San Diego looks like they've put everything together, that's when they completely collapse. Also, they've never won a playoff game in the LT era. Most chillingly of all, they're now coached by Norv Turner (shudder!) who WILL be overmatched by Jeff Fisher. Throw in the always-present potential for Vince Young (pictured, right) magic. I know he's been mildly awful, but do YOU want to try to stop Vince Young (even an overmatched Vince Young) in a big game? It seems like an easy pick, but this game scares me. (Unless he doesn't play...then forget we had this conversation.)