John's Emmy Picks

I know I've said it before, but I'll say it again: right now, TV is kicking movies' big-screen ass in terms of quality. So how could I not give you my thoughts on the awards that (allegedly) honor the best work in television?

I can't possibly predict who'll win these damn things (because voters decide based on a few individual episodes, as opposed to the entire TV season). So here's who I LIKE in the 10 major categories:

COMEDY SERIES "The Office" • NBC "Entourage" • HBO "30 Rock" • NBC "Two and a Half Men" • CBS "Ugly Betty" • ABC

What John Thinks: Well, I've made no secret of the fact that I think The Office is the best show on TV right now. 30 Rock wins the most improved award, becoming laugh-out-loud excellent after a so-so start. Entourage had a down season with its repetitive "Medellin" saga and the increasingly unwatchably annoying Vince. I like The Office to win, but they'll probably give it to Ugly Betty a show grew on me in a big way (had to get used to the weird, over-the-top tone) and seems to have a ton of goodwill.

DRAMA SERIES "Boston Legal" • ABC "Grey's Anatomy" • ABC "Heroes" • NBC "House" • FOX "The Sopranos" • HBO

What John Thinks: Well, what I think is that Lost and Friday Night Lights (my new obsession — thanks Erica!) were both better last year than any of the nominated shows. Still, even if those two shows had been nominated, there's no way The Sopranos wasn't going to win for its slightly uneven, but typically outstanding final season. House dragged in the middle, Boston Legal is a comedy, Heroes can be pretty damn uneven sometimes and I kinda hate Grey's Anatomy.

ACTOR IN A COMEDY Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" • NBC Steve Carell, "The Office" • NBC Tony Shalhoub, "Monk" • USA Charlie Sheen, "Two and a Half Men" • CBS Ricky Gervais, "Extras" • HBO

What John Thinks: To me, it comes down to Alec Baldwin and Steve Carell, who are both brilliant. Carell's won a Golden Globe for The Office, as has Baldwin for 30 Rock. I'll give the edge to Baldwin (if Carell wins, my feelings won't be hurt), for finally finding his wheelhouse in TV AND on a sitcom, and looking like he's been going it his entire life. On a related story, if Tony Shalhoub (who I actually like) beats both of them out, I'm done with the Emmys.

ACTOR IN A DRAMA Hugh Laurie, "House" • FOX James Gandolfini, "The Sopranos" • HBO Kiefer Sutherland, "24" • FOX Denis Leary, "Rescue Me" • F/X James Spader, "Boston Legal" • ABC

What John Thinks: This is consistently one of the more crowded categories and there are a bunch of guys who should be in here that aren't even nominated (Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights, Ian McShane, Deadwood, Michael Chiklis, The Shield). Sutherland suffers from the suckiness of the past season of 24. Leary's good, but I don't think the show has a high enough profile. I LOVE Hugh Laurie, but James Gandolfini's work as Tony Soprano is just in another league from anything else on TV. And the beauty is that it never, EVER looks like he's acting. (Beware of the always-excellent James Spader sneaking in and taking the prize).

ACTRESS IN A COMEDY America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty" • ABC Tina Fey, "30 Rock" • NBC Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "The New Adventures of Old Christine" • CBS Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" • Showtime Felicity Huffman, "Desperate Housewives" • ABC

What John Thinks: A suddenly stacked category after the debut of a couple new sitcoms with strong, funny women as the heroes. Huffman, Louis-Dreyfous (who won last year) and Parker are both great, but Huffman's already won, and Parker doesn't have the heat that newcomers Fey and Ferrera have. I actually like all the nominees, but I think America Ferrara is going to take this prize for grounding an incredibly silly show (Fey does the same, but I'll suspect they'll reward her writing). Beware of Louis-Dreyfous, who Emmy (rightfully) loves.

ACTRESS IN A DRAMA Edie Falco, "The Sopranos" • HBO Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" • TNT Sally Field, "Brothers and Sisters" • ABC Minnie Driver, "The Riches" F/X Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: SVU" • NBC

What John Thinks: Not a great crop this year. I'll give the prize to Edie Falco, but she really didn't have that much to do this year (although she was still excellent as usual). Also, it's the only one of these five shows I watch, so I'd be posing if I picked anyone else. Methinks Field or Sedgwick (probably Sedwick) will win.

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY Kevin Dillon, "Entourage" • HBO Jeremy Piven, "Entourage" • HBO Neil Patrick Harris, "How I Met Your Mother" • CBS Rainn Wilson, "The Office"• NBC Jon Cryer, "Two And A Half Men" •CBS

What John Thinks: Another one of the ridiculously stacked categories. All of these guys are pretty damn funny, but I'll give the edge to Rainn Wilson because his Dwight Schrute (a character that could've gotten old REALLY fast) has actually become more dimensional and likable, even as he goes more and more over-the-top. That's, in no small part, due to Wilson.

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA William Shatner, "Boston Legal" • ABC T.R. Knight, "Grey's Anatomy" • ABC Masi Oka, "Heroes" • NBC Michael Emerson, "Lost" • ABC Terry O'Quinn, "Lost" • ABC

What John Thinks: All of these guys are strong, and Masi Oka will probably win because he was consistently the best thing about the biggest new show of the season, but I like creepy Michael Emerson. You never know where his character's coming from and this year he played command and vulnerability equally well.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY Jaime Pressly, "My Name Is Earl" (NBC) Jenna Fischer, "The Office" (NBC) Holland Taylor, "Two And A Half Men" (CBS) Conchata Ferrell, "Two And A Half Men (CBS) Vanessa Williams, "Ugly Betty" (ABC) Elizabeth Perkins, "Weeds" (Showtime)

What John Thinks: Some very funny ladies in here. I feel bad for Elizabeth Perkins and Jamie Pressly because they're both hilarious and because this is a two-person race between Vanessa Williams and Jenna Fischer. It's too close for me to call, and I'd have no problem at all if Williams wins (nice career comeback!), but there's no way I can pick against my beloved, shy, witty, long-suffering and suddenly-standing-up-for-herself Pam, who Jenna Fischer has brilliantly brought to life.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA Rachel Griffiths, "Brothers & Sisters" • ABC Katherine Heigl, "Grey's Anatomy" • ABC Chandra Wilson, "Grey's Anatomy" • ABC Sandra Oh, "Grey's Anatomy" • ABC Aida Turturro, "The Sopranos" • HBO Lorraine Bracco, "The Sopranos" • HBO

What John Thinks: Neither of the Sopranos ladies stood out this year (Bracco had one REALLY good scene, in her last one on the show) and I don't watch Brothers and Sisters. That leaves the always-overacting/crying Heigl, sassy, Wilson (who was severely underused this year (to focus on stupid ferry disasters and other garbage) and Sandra Oh, who should have this prize locked up thanks to her showy, Emmy-y breakdown in the finale.