When it comes to prognosticating, I've always been sort of a procrastinator.
Wow, even I have to groan out loud at that first sentence. Sorry about that folks.
Why don't we just get on to my Oscar picks? (Whose well-manicured hand is that, anyway?) As I mentioned earlier this week, I'll also be doing my much-anticipated (only in my mind) 2nd Annual Oscar Diary during the telecast.
Check back in early next week and I'll let you know how well I did with my picks. Unless, of course, I do really badly, in which case I might mysteriously forget to mention how I did.
On to the picks: (My picks to win will be in bold.)
BEST PICTURE
Wow, even I have to groan out loud at that first sentence. Sorry about that folks.
Why don't we just get on to my Oscar picks? (Whose well-manicured hand is that, anyway?) As I mentioned earlier this week, I'll also be doing my much-anticipated (only in my mind) 2nd Annual Oscar Diary during the telecast.
Check back in early next week and I'll let you know how well I did with my picks. Unless, of course, I do really badly, in which case I might mysteriously forget to mention how I did.
On to the picks: (My picks to win will be in bold.)
BEST PICTURE
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
What John Thinks: I feel pretty good about this category, seeing as how I've picked the last six Best Picture winners correctly (you're gonna have to take my words, since I've only been blogging for the past year). Also, there's the fact that "No Country" has won pretty much every "best film" award under the sun. "Atonement" has no momentum, "Blood" is impressive, but even more divisive than "No Country", and even George Clooney doesn't think "Michael Clayton" has a chance. I see a minor possibility of "No Country" and "Blood" splitting votes, allowing "Juno" to win (you know, the one of these movies America actually saw), but I'd still bet on "No Country". I actually happen to agree that it's the Best Picture out of the group.
DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
What John Thinks: I feel pretty good about this category, seeing as how I've picked the last six Best Picture winners correctly (you're gonna have to take my words, since I've only been blogging for the past year). Also, there's the fact that "No Country" has won pretty much every "best film" award under the sun. "Atonement" has no momentum, "Blood" is impressive, but even more divisive than "No Country", and even George Clooney doesn't think "Michael Clayton" has a chance. I see a minor possibility of "No Country" and "Blood" splitting votes, allowing "Juno" to win (you know, the one of these movies America actually saw), but I'd still bet on "No Country". I actually happen to agree that it's the Best Picture out of the group.
DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman, Juno
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
What John Thinks: Though I'm picking the Coens will win, I would personally give Anderson the award because "Blood" is SO much his vision. Still, the Coens are completely deserving. Reitman and Gilroy have no chance, but watch out for a possible Schnabel win for voters wanting to reward "Butterfly."
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
What John Thinks: Though I'm picking the Coens will win, I would personally give Anderson the award because "Blood" is SO much his vision. Still, the Coens are completely deserving. Reitman and Gilroy have no chance, but watch out for a possible Schnabel win for voters wanting to reward "Butterfly."
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Juno
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages
What John Thinks: I think this will be how the Academy rewards "Juno", the biggest hit out of any of the major contenders. Personally, I'd give the prize to Brad Bird's "Ratatouille" screenplay because I thought Anton Ego's speech at the end was the year's best writing.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
What John Thinks: I think this will be how the Academy rewards "Juno", the biggest hit out of any of the major contenders. Personally, I'd give the prize to Brad Bird's "Ratatouille" screenplay because I thought Anton Ego's speech at the end was the year's best writing.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Atonement
Away from Her
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
What John Thinks: I'm picking the Coens to win and I also think they should win for their apparently faithful adaptation (I'm not going to pretend that I read the book) of an allegedly hard to adapt book. Although Anderson gets props for coming up with such a unique story from Upton Sinclair's "Oil!", sometimes the smartest thing you can do is stay out of your own way and let the source material speak for itself. It makes me sad that P.T. Anderson is probably going to get completely shut out at the Oscars yet again (after "Boogie Nights", and "Magnolia"). Oh well.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
What John Thinks: I'm picking the Coens to win and I also think they should win for their apparently faithful adaptation (I'm not going to pretend that I read the book) of an allegedly hard to adapt book. Although Anderson gets props for coming up with such a unique story from Upton Sinclair's "Oil!", sometimes the smartest thing you can do is stay out of your own way and let the source material speak for itself. It makes me sad that P.T. Anderson is probably going to get completely shut out at the Oscars yet again (after "Boogie Nights", and "Magnolia"). Oh well.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
What John Thinks: The only surer thing is the Supporting Actor "race" (see two spots below). It's a shame because Clooney, Depp and Mortensen could've been strong contenders to win just last year. I can't really comment on Jones because I wasn't one of the 17 people that saw In the Valley of Elah –elah-elah-eh-eh-eh (sorry, couldn't resist).
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
What John Thinks: The only surer thing is the Supporting Actor "race" (see two spots below). It's a shame because Clooney, Depp and Mortensen could've been strong contenders to win just last year. I can't really comment on Jones because I wasn't one of the 17 people that saw In the Valley of Elah –elah-elah-eh-eh-eh (sorry, couldn't resist).
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno
What John Thinks: Though I'm picking Christie to win, I'd give the award to Ellen Page because she created one of the breakout movie characters in the last year, was equally adept at the comedic and dramatic aspects of her performance, and because it's the only one of these five that I saw. Still, Oscar will likely go with the old-pro, Oscar winner Christie (for "Darling"), though watch out for Cotillard, who's gaining big-time momentum.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
What John Thinks: Though I'm picking Christie to win, I'd give the award to Ellen Page because she created one of the breakout movie characters in the last year, was equally adept at the comedic and dramatic aspects of her performance, and because it's the only one of these five that I saw. Still, Oscar will likely go with the old-pro, Oscar winner Christie (for "Darling"), though watch out for Cotillard, who's gaining big-time momentum.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
What John Thinks: See my comment two spots about how this is an absolute sure thing. The other four nominees can just show up, collect their $20,000 gift bag, and hang out for a few hours because they're not going to win. Not only will Bardem win the Oscar, but he's also the heavy frontrunner for "Actor Most Likely To Make My Girl Erica Swoon."
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
What John Thinks: See my comment two spots about how this is an absolute sure thing. The other four nominees can just show up, collect their $20,000 gift bag, and hang out for a few hours because they're not going to win. Not only will Bardem win the Oscar, but he's also the heavy frontrunner for "Actor Most Likely To Make My Girl Erica Swoon."
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
What John Thinks: I've actually seen every performance EXCEPT for Blanchett's, so why am I picking her to win? Because the Academy LOVES her (she's a past winner and check out the dual nominations this year) and they love to reward gimmicky transformations (Nicole Kidman's nose in "The Hours", for example). As for the other contenders, I'd choose Swinton in the slightest of margins over Ryan (both were excellent). Ronan was good for a young actor, but not really Oscar worthy, and if the Academy wanted to nominate a five-minute performance, they should've nominated Vanessa Redgrave in "Atonement" instead of Ruby Dee in "Gangster."
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
What John Thinks: I've actually seen every performance EXCEPT for Blanchett's, so why am I picking her to win? Because the Academy LOVES her (she's a past winner and check out the dual nominations this year) and they love to reward gimmicky transformations (Nicole Kidman's nose in "The Hours", for example). As for the other contenders, I'd choose Swinton in the slightest of margins over Ryan (both were excellent). Ronan was good for a young actor, but not really Oscar worthy, and if the Academy wanted to nominate a five-minute performance, they should've nominated Vanessa Redgrave in "Atonement" instead of Ruby Dee in "Gangster."
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
12 (Russia)
Beaufort (Israel)
Counterfeiters (Austria)
Katyn (Poland)
Mongol (Kazakhstan)
What John Thinks: I've usually seen one or two of the nominees, but this year I haven't even heard of any of the contenders. I'm going with "Katyn" because I saw "The Pianist" last night, and I just want to throw my support behind Polish people in any way I can (60 years too late). Also, I have no good "Borat" joke to make me pick the movie from Kazakhstan.
ANIMATED FEATURE
What John Thinks: I've usually seen one or two of the nominees, but this year I haven't even heard of any of the contenders. I'm going with "Katyn" because I saw "The Pianist" last night, and I just want to throw my support behind Polish people in any way I can (60 years too late). Also, I have no good "Borat" joke to make me pick the movie from Kazakhstan.
ANIMATED FEATURE
Persepolis
Ratatouille
Surf's Up
What John Thinks: Duh, I've been telling anyone who'll listen that "Ratatouille" was the best movie of the year. I've gotta go with it. I'm not going to be like the Oscars last year, which gave "Pan's Labyrinth" several technical awards, then inexplicably passed it over for "Best Foreign Film." I just hope there's someone around to console me if Persepolis pulls the upset.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
What John Thinks: Duh, I've been telling anyone who'll listen that "Ratatouille" was the best movie of the year. I've gotta go with it. I'm not going to be like the Oscars last year, which gave "Pan's Labyrinth" several technical awards, then inexplicably passed it over for "Best Foreign Film." I just hope there's someone around to console me if Persepolis pulls the upset.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
No End in Sight
Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
Sicko
Taxi to the Dark Side
War/Dance
What John Thinks: Do the Oscars dare put Michael Moore back on stage during an election year? I don't know. It would make for some entertaining television. Fortunately, squeamish voters have an easy out in "No End" which is supposed to be an excellently objective takedown of all the mistakes leading up the United State's involvement in Iraq.
SHORT FILM - ANIMATED
What John Thinks: Do the Oscars dare put Michael Moore back on stage during an election year? I don't know. It would make for some entertaining television. Fortunately, squeamish voters have an easy out in "No End" which is supposed to be an excellently objective takedown of all the mistakes leading up the United State's involvement in Iraq.
SHORT FILM - ANIMATED
I Met the Walrus
Madame Tutli-Putli
My Love (Moya Lyubov)
Peter & the Wolf
What John Thinks: I usually pick the cutesiest title in the lot, and I'm usually wrong (sorry, "I Met the Walrus" and "Madame Tutli-Putli"). I've actually heard of the "Peter & the Wolf" story, so I'm going to zag and vote for "My Love" (or as I call it when I speak about with my friends, "Moya Lyubov").
SHORT FILM - LIVE ACTION
What John Thinks: I usually pick the cutesiest title in the lot, and I'm usually wrong (sorry, "I Met the Walrus" and "Madame Tutli-Putli"). I've actually heard of the "Peter & the Wolf" story, so I'm going to zag and vote for "My Love" (or as I call it when I speak about with my friends, "Moya Lyubov").
SHORT FILM - LIVE ACTION
At Night
Il Supplente (The Substitute)
Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets)
Tanghi Argentini
The Tonto Woman
What John Thinks: I get that almost no one in the general public watches these, but where do Academy members go to watch these? I know they're "short films", but I don't know that I would even take 25 minutes to sit through any or all of these if I were a member. I GUARANTEE you that a significant portion of Academy members vote for movies with funny titles.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
What John Thinks: I get that almost no one in the general public watches these, but where do Academy members go to watch these? I know they're "short films", but I don't know that I would even take 25 minutes to sit through any or all of these if I were a member. I GUARANTEE you that a significant portion of Academy members vote for movies with funny titles.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Freeheld
La Corona (The Crown)
Salim Baba
Sari's Mother
What John Thinks: To me, "Sari's Mother" was the only Documentary Short all year that really had something to say. Everything else was ultra-commercial trash!
ORIGINAL SCORE
What John Thinks: To me, "Sari's Mother" was the only Documentary Short all year that really had something to say. Everything else was ultra-commercial trash!
ORIGINAL SCORE
Atonement
The Kite Runner
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
3:10 to Yuma
What John Thinks: If the Academy feels like rewarding "Atonement", this would be the perfect place. I thought the clickity, clackety keyboard bits and the rest of the score were definitely a highlight of the film.
ORIGINAL SONG
"Falling Slowly" - Once
"Happy Working Song" - Enchanted
"Raise It Up" - August Rush
"So Close" - Enchanted
"That's How You Know" – Enchanted
What John Thinks: Assuming enough Academy members pulled themselves away from watching Live Action Short Films and got around to watching "Once", they'd have to give "Falling Slowly" (a beautiful song in, arguably, the film's signature sequence) the prize. It'd be a great way to recognizing a terrific gem of a movie. Yes, I know that I've called "That's What You Know" one of my favorite sequences of the year (and I'm looking forward to watching Kristin Chenoweth sing it at the ceremony, as well as shoulda-been Oscar nominee Amy Adams take on the "Happy Working Song"), but I think the three "Enchanted" songs will split the vote.
ART DIRECTION
What John Thinks: Assuming enough Academy members pulled themselves away from watching Live Action Short Films and got around to watching "Once", they'd have to give "Falling Slowly" (a beautiful song in, arguably, the film's signature sequence) the prize. It'd be a great way to recognizing a terrific gem of a movie. Yes, I know that I've called "That's What You Know" one of my favorite sequences of the year (and I'm looking forward to watching Kristin Chenoweth sing it at the ceremony, as well as shoulda-been Oscar nominee Amy Adams take on the "Happy Working Song"), but I think the three "Enchanted" songs will split the vote.
ART DIRECTION
American Gangster
Atonement
The Golden Compass
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
There Will Be Blood
What John Thinks: To be honest, I'm not 100% sure on what art direction is (it has to do with set design, right?), but I can't believe they'd let "Blood" go home with ZERO prizes. Since, this seems like the category to reward pretty films, watch out for "Atonement" or possibly "Sweeney" winning.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
What John Thinks: To be honest, I'm not 100% sure on what art direction is (it has to do with set design, right?), but I can't believe they'd let "Blood" go home with ZERO prizes. Since, this seems like the category to reward pretty films, watch out for "Atonement" or possibly "Sweeney" winning.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
What John Thinks: I actually think that Roger Deakins' work in "Country" was a little better than Elswit's incredibly and thrilling work in "Blood." But since Deakins is also nominated for "Jesse James", I'm feeling a vote split that'll benefit Elswit, and give the Academy a chance to reward "Blood" since I'm predicting it'll get shut out of most major awards.
COSTUME DESIGN
What John Thinks: I actually think that Roger Deakins' work in "Country" was a little better than Elswit's incredibly and thrilling work in "Blood." But since Deakins is also nominated for "Jesse James", I'm feeling a vote split that'll benefit Elswit, and give the Academy a chance to reward "Blood" since I'm predicting it'll get shut out of most major awards.
COSTUME DESIGN
Across the Universe
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
La Vie en Rose
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
What John Thinks: About the only nice thing anyone had to say about the "Elizabeth" sequel was how great the costumes were. I see them triumphing over Keira Knightley's green dress in "Atonement"
MAKEUP
What John Thinks: About the only nice thing anyone had to say about the "Elizabeth" sequel was how great the costumes were. I see them triumphing over Keira Knightley's green dress in "Atonement"
MAKEUP
La Vie en Rose
Norbit
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
What John Thinks: I think of "Pirates" as more of a special effects accomplishment than makeup, and I just can't stomach the Academy making "Norbit" an Oscar-winning film. So by process of elimination (and so that "La Vie en Rose") gets a little love, I'll give it the nod.
SOUND MIXING
What John Thinks: I think of "Pirates" as more of a special effects accomplishment than makeup, and I just can't stomach the Academy making "Norbit" an Oscar-winning film. So by process of elimination (and so that "La Vie en Rose") gets a little love, I'll give it the nod.
SOUND MIXING
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
Ratatouille
3:10 to Yuma
Transformers
What John Thinks: I don't really know what this means, but I'll go with "No Country" because, um, the way the sound was, um, mixed, was really scary and effective. (Where else can you go for such hard-hitting analysis?)
SOUND EDITING
What John Thinks: I don't really know what this means, but I'll go with "No Country" because, um, the way the sound was, um, mixed, was really scary and effective. (Where else can you go for such hard-hitting analysis?)
SOUND EDITING
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
Ratatouille
There Will Be Blood
Transformers
What John Thinks: What's going on in the "3:10 to Yuma" Sound department? The mixing guys were good enough to pick up a nomination, but the people who worked on editing COMPLETELY dropped the ball, opening the door for "Blood" to sneak in there. You should be ashamed of yourselves, "3:10 to Yuma" sound editor(s).
VISUAL EFFECTS
What John Thinks: What's going on in the "3:10 to Yuma" Sound department? The mixing guys were good enough to pick up a nomination, but the people who worked on editing COMPLETELY dropped the ball, opening the door for "Blood" to sneak in there. You should be ashamed of yourselves, "3:10 to Yuma" sound editor(s).
VISUAL EFFECTS
The Golden Compass
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Transformers
What John Thinks: Say what you will about Michael Bay, but seriously? How cool did those robots look? Also, "The Golden Compass" gets two nominations, and "Zodiac" gets none?!
FILM EDITING
What John Thinks: Say what you will about Michael Bay, but seriously? How cool did those robots look? Also, "The Golden Compass" gets two nominations, and "Zodiac" gets none?!
FILM EDITING
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
What John Thinks: Although I wish they would've edited their damn movie to make the last 25 minutes a little more comprehensible to anyone who hadn't read the book, the Coens should win their fourth statue of the evening under their editing pseudonym, Roderick Jaynes. (Actually, it'll probably be their first award, because it'll likely be given out before any of the major prizes.)
What John Thinks: Although I wish they would've edited their damn movie to make the last 25 minutes a little more comprehensible to anyone who hadn't read the book, the Coens should win their fourth statue of the evening under their editing pseudonym, Roderick Jaynes. (Actually, it'll probably be their first award, because it'll likely be given out before any of the major prizes.)
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