NFL 2009 Week 1 picks

So much for the Titans not being able to stop the Steelers from running the ball.

In my Thursday night football pick, I predicted that Pittsburgh would run the ball up and down the field against the Titans, who lost star DT Albert Haynesworth (and defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz) in the offseason. Well, the Steelers ran the ball for a grand total of 36 yards in 23 carries. If you don’t have a calculator handy, that averages out to 1.HORRIBLE yards per carry. (Let’s pause for a second to acknowledge the Steelers themselves for being completely pathetic at running the ball.) Oh well, at least I got the winning team right.

But enough about the past. Let’s look to the future and the first full weekend slate of football in the 2009 regular season. Last year, my picks averaged out to about a 10-6 record. That’s solid. That would probably get me a wild card spot and might even win me a (weak) division. This year, expect more of the same – a decent record, and plenty of foolish statements. (My picks to win will be in bold.)

MIAMI @ ATLANTA
This is a matchup between the two teams who wildly overachieved last season. Since I’m a big believer in the “they’re not sneaking up on anyone” factor, I think they’ll both falter this year. I think Atlanta will slightly falter more (they’re defense is secretly REALLY bad.)

DENVER @CINCINNATI
I don’t know if you’ve heard, but it’s been kind of a rough offseason for the Broncos. However, I actually think they’ll be pretty good. Everyone’s complaining about how they traded away QB Jay Cutler, but the guy had a losing record as a starting QB (and he really revealed himself to be a certified baby). They have a talented new coach (who could probably work on his people skills) and they open the season against the Bengals (the Bengals ARE still the Bengals).

MINNESOTA @ CLEVELAND
Am I really going to pick three straight road teams to start this thing off? Yes I am. Minnesota will try to break in a new quarterback, but I think he’ll be fine.

JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS
I don’t know why, but I think the Jags will be sneaky good (for the first part of the season) and I think the Colts will be kinda bad (for the first part of the season) leading to a bunch of stories about how the loss of Tony Dungy, Marvin Harrison, etc. could lead to the end of the Colts era as a successful team. Then they’ll turn it around and go to the playoffs like they always do.

DETROIT @ NEW ORLEANS
Well a home team HAS to win one of these games, so I’ll step out on a limb with this one.

DALLAS @ TAMPA BAY
True confession time: part of the reason I didn’t do an NFL preview is because it looks like the Bucs are going to have a miserable season and the NFC South preview would’ve been depressing.. I like new coach Raheem Morris (pictured, right, smiling...for now), and I kinda like the fact that we’re blowing things up and trying to start something new, but so far there’s been little indication that anyone knows what the hell they’re doing. I hope I’m wrong.

PHILADELPHIA @ CAROLINA
People are a little too excited about Philadelphia coming into this season, while I feel Carolina is a little underrated. Still, I’ll go with the Eagles because I believe Panthers QB Jake Delhomme will be brutal this season until I see evidence stating otherwise.

KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE
Whether new Chiefs QB Matt Cassel plays or not – this is going to be ugly.

N.Y JETS @ HOUSTON
It’s not so much that I like a rookie QB on the road, it’s just that I feel too many people are picking Houston as their sleeper, thereby disqualifying the Texans from true sleeper status (and burdening them with expectations they’re not ready to handle). It’s what happened to the Cardinals when they were still excited about Matt Leinart as their quarterback. If you’re looking for a real sleeper…

SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA
…how about my 49ers? They’re my sleeper pick to go to the playoffs. I love their coach, they have a good running back that they’re committed to feeding, and their quarterback (Shaun Hill) is better than you think. On the other hand, Arizona will likely suffer the Super Bowl loser curse and there’s no way Kurt Warner will finish this season healthy, right?

WASHINGTON @ N.Y. GIANTS
The Giants still have an excellent defense, while the Redskins offense is still a little too anemic for my taste.

ST. LOUIS @ SEATTLE
Seattle will be better this year, but, more importantly, St. Louis will still be terrible.

CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY
I REALLY like this Sunday Night Football game, and I think it’ll be a shootout. I’ll give the Packers the edge at home until I see what Jay Cutler can actually do with his new team.

BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND
Welcome to the first installment of “Do I really have to dignify this with an answer?”

SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND
And welcome back to “Do I really have to dignify this with an answer?” Boy, it didn’t take long for me to bring back this feature.